7402 Spinel Way · San Antonio, TX 78263

$189,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $112/sqft · 21% below area Est $239k · 21% under $106/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Tilley is a two-story floorplan which features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft and a 2-car garage. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,883 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.41%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,999
• List price: $189,999
• Delta: -20.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7422 Spinel Way	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	0mo	$225,999	$134	100
7402 Spinel Way	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	1mo	$189,999	$112	99
7407 Spinel Way	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	1mo	$208,999	$124	99
7370 Orange Sapphire	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	1mo	$184,999	$109	83
7435 Spinel Way	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-12%)	1mo	$210,999	$142	77
6926 Aqua Marine	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+12%)	2mo	$239,999	$126	71
7350 Orange Sapphire	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-12%)	1mo	$181,999	$123	60
7358 Orange Sapphire	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-12%)	2mo	$188,999	$127	60
7377 Orange Sapphire	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-12%)	2mo	$187,999	$127	59
7108 Aqua Marine	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,897 (+12%)	1mo	$199,999	$105	56
7131 Sapphire Rdg	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+12%)	1mo	$234,999	$123	49
7116 Aqua Marine	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+12%)	2mo	$253,999	$133	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-43,149
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-53,244
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78263

• Home prices YoY: -8.1%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,549 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,796

Max offer price $161,715

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8511 Opal Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,475	$1.07	44d	1	0.35mi
7316 Green Sapphire San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,750	$1.09	22d	1	0.36mi
8523 Logan Sapphire San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,500	$1.01	44d	1	0.81mi
7306 India Star San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,500	$1.10	15d	1	0.81mi
6538 Dali Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,295	$1.09	15d	1	1.18mi
6530 Dali Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,550	$1.14	44d	1	1.18mi
6609 Dali Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,375	$1.16	44d	1	1.23mi
7649 Barcelo Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,547	$1.01	44d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $189,999 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   The Tilley is a two-story floorplan which features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft and a 2-car garage. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-12
   price $203,999 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   The Tilley is a two-story floorplan which features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft and a 2-car garage. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-30
   price $223,999 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   The Tilley is a two-story floorplan which features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft and a 2-car garage. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-17
   price $227,999 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   The Tilley is a two-story floorplan which features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft and a 2-car garage. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-03-24
   price $232,999 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   The Tilley is a two-story floorplan which features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft and a 2-car garage. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-03-13
   listed $231,999 New 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   The Tilley is a two-story floorplan which features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft and a 2-car garage. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,487
• − Management: −$1,487
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,351
• After-tax cash flow: $-994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and offers high potential for both resale and rental value with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both Upgrading HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrading HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 4,514

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 43% Two or more races 24% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.29%
• Current HPI: 322.4738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $189,999 LERA
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $203,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $223,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $227,999 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $232,999 LERA
• 2026-03-13 Listed $231,999 LERA