19 Fox Hollow Dr · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,349,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,869 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2003 1.84 ac lot $471/sqft · 27% below area Est $1859k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cash offers, contract vendee. Tremendous opportunity for investor, contractor or end user. This contemporary year-round home features a living room with a fireplace overlooking the outdoor pool and deck, all set on park-like grounds offering exceptional privacy. The kitchen includes a dining area conveniently located for easy entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite boasts its own fireplace and private bath. The main level offers two additional en suite bedrooms, along with two bedrooms that share a full bathroom. Additional highlights include a partially finished basement with a gym, a two-car garage, a Har-Tru tennis court, and an in-ground pool

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Private bath
• Primary suite

Tags

• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• OUTDOOR POOL
• PARK-LIKE GROUNDS
• PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE BATH
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($166k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($29k rent vs $1.35M).
• Recommended offer: $1.23M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $40k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $378k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.23M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $424k; list at $1.35M implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,228,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.82%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,858,815
• List price: $1,349,900
• Delta: -27.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Fox Hollow Dr	0.21mi	4/3.5	2,800 (-2%)	10mo	$1,899,900	$679	76
10 Fox Hollow Dr	0.38mi	4/3.5	2,800 (-2%)	17mo	$1,720,000	$614	62
16 Peacock Path	0.48mi	4/4.5	2,592 (-10%)	8mo	$1,805,000	$696	53
100 Whippoorwill Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,800 (-2%)	18mo	$1,500,000	$536	52
3000 Quogue Riverhead Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,622 (-9%)	21mo	$900,000	$343	34
2 Box Tree Rd	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,500 (-13%)	18mo	$1,300,000	$520	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $660,474
• Equity at exit: $201,274

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $1,707,825
• Equity at exit: $116,715

Cash invested: $377,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $28,802 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,079
• Tax from tax record: −$1,311 /mo · $15,732/yr
• Insurance: −$562
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,048
• Net cashflow: $13,801

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,332

Max offer price $1,349,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $337,475
• Closing costs: $40,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Cherry Blossom Ln East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3632	$40,000	$11.01	43d	1	0.18mi
1 Whippoorwill Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2483	$29,000	$11.68	5d	1	0.38mi
10 Fox Hollow Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2750	$30,000	$10.91	43d	1	0.40mi
2941 Quogue Riverhead Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.5	2044	$80,000	$39.14	24d	1	0.42mi
114 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2201	$18,000	$8.18	18d	1	0.63mi
69 Whippoorwill Ln Patchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2945	$20,000	$6.79	1d	1	0.63mi
99 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3512	$95,000	$27.05	24d	1	0.78mi
24 Quogue Riverhead Rd Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	2054	$15,000	$7.30	24d	1	0.79mi
73 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.5	2400	$25,000	$10.42	18d	1	0.96mi
11 Post Xing East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2926	$20,000	$6.84	18d	1	1.05mi
718 Montauk Hwy East Quogue, NY	5.0	2.0	2500	$25,000	$10.00	24d	1	1.14mi
9 The Registry East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.5	2734	$30,000	$10.97	43d	1	1.39mi
10 Pennant Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2800	$80,000	$28.57	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    status Active 660-char remark

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    Cash offers, contract vendee. Tremendous opportunity for investor, contractor or end user. This contemporary year-round home features a living room with a fireplace overlooking the outdoor pool and deck, all set on park-like grounds offering exceptional privacy. The kitchen includes a dining area conveniently located for easy entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite boasts its own fireplace and private bath. The main level offers two additional en suite bedrooms, along with two bedrooms that share a full bathroom. Additional highlights include a partially finished basement with a gym, a two-car garage, a Har-Tru tennis court, and an in-ground pool

16. 2026-05-01
    historical 660-char remark

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    Cash offers, contract vendee. Tremendous opportunity for investor, contractor or end user. This contemporary year-round home features a living room with a fireplace overlooking the outdoor pool and deck, all set on park-like grounds offering exceptional privacy. The kitchen includes a dining area conveniently located for easy entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite boasts its own fireplace and private bath. The main level offers two additional en suite bedrooms, along with two bedrooms that share a full bathroom. Additional highlights include a partially finished basement with a gym, a two-car garage, a Har-Tru tennis court, and an in-ground pool

17. 2026-03-30
    price $1,349,900 660-char remark

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    Cash offers, contract vendee. Tremendous opportunity for investor, contractor or end user. This contemporary year-round home features a living room with a fireplace overlooking the outdoor pool and deck, all set on park-like grounds offering exceptional privacy. The kitchen includes a dining area conveniently located for easy entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite boasts its own fireplace and private bath. The main level offers two additional en suite bedrooms, along with two bedrooms that share a full bathroom. Additional highlights include a partially finished basement with a gym, a two-car garage, a Har-Tru tennis court, and an in-ground pool

18. 2026-03-04
    listed $1,399,900 Active 660-char remark

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    Cash offers, contract vendee. Tremendous opportunity for investor, contractor or end user. This contemporary year-round home features a living room with a fireplace overlooking the outdoor pool and deck, all set on park-like grounds offering exceptional privacy. The kitchen includes a dining area conveniently located for easy entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite boasts its own fireplace and private bath. The main level offers two additional en suite bedrooms, along with two bedrooms that share a full bathroom. Additional highlights include a partially finished basement with a gym, a two-car garage, a Har-Tru tennis court, and an in-ground pool

19. 2025-10-09
    price $1,580,000
20. 2025-09-10
    price $1,650,000
21. 2020-02-28
    historical
22. 2019-08-29
    listed $1,250,000 New
23. 2019-06-01
    historical
24. 2019-02-25
    price $1,300,000
25. 2019-01-18
    listed $1,395,000 New
26. 2019-01-05
    historical
27. 2018-04-16
    listed $1,395,000 New
28. 1997-08-22
    soldstatus $423,500
29. 1988-06-14
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,732 · $1,311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,273 · $1,606/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,541/yr (+$295/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $345,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$75,615
• − Property taxes: −$15,732
• − Insurance: −$6,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,650
• − Management: −$27,650
• − Depreciation: −$39,270
• Taxable income: $152,960
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$36,710
• After-tax cash flow: $128,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1185.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $1,349,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $1,399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $1,580,000 BNYMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $1,650,000 BNYMLS
• 2020-02-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-29 Listed $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-25 Price Changed $1,300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-18 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-16 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $423,500 Public Records
• 1988-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $15,732 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.