19 Fox Hollow Dr · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,349,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,869 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 199 Days on market

Built 2003 Poor condition 1.84 ac lot $471/sqft · 30% below area Est $1.919M · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cash offers, contract vendee. Tremendous opportunity for investor, contractor or end user. This contemporary year-round home features a living room with a fireplace overlooking the outdoor pool and deck, all set on park-like grounds offering exceptional privacy. The kitchen includes a dining area conveniently located for easy entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite boasts its own fireplace and private bath. The main level offers two additional en suite bedrooms, along with two bedrooms that share a full bathroom.

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Private bath
• Primary suite

Tags

• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• OUTDOOR POOL
• PARK-LIKE GROUNDS
• PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE BATH
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.35M. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12k ($144k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $1.35M).
• Recommended offer: $1.19M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 6.6% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 115d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 81% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $26,538/mo this rent would consume 298% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $40k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $378k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.19M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $424k; list at $1.35M implies a 219% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,187,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.14%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,918,870
• List price: $1,349,900
• Delta: -29.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Fox Hollow Dr	0.21mi	4/3.5	2,800 (-2%)	13mo	$1,899,900	$679	73
10 Fox Hollow Dr	0.38mi	4/3.5	2,800 (-2%)	20mo	$1,720,000	$614	59
16 Peacock Path	0.48mi	4/4.5	2,592 (-10%)	11mo	$1,805,000	$696	50
100 Whippoorwill Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,800 (-2%)	21mo	$1,500,000	$536	50
3000 Quogue Riverhead Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,622 (-9%)	24mo	$900,000	$343	31
2 Box Tree Rd	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,500 (-13%)	21mo	$1,300,000	$520	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $546,512
• Equity at exit: $201,274

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $1,461,748
• Equity at exit: $116,715

Cash invested: $377,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $2,172,500 ($722/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $26,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,079
• Tax from tax record: −$1,311 /mo · $15,732/yr
• Insurance: −$562
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,573
• Net cashflow: $12,013

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,332

Max offer price $1,349,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12,777	-5% $12,395	+0% $12,013	+5% $11,630	+10% $11,248
Rent	-10% $9,916	-5% $10,964	+0% $12,013	+5% $13,061	+10% $14,109
Rate	-1.0pp $12,692	-0.5pp $12,356	base $12,013	+0.5pp $11,663	+1.0pp $11,307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $337,475
• Closing costs: $40,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Cherry Blossom Ln East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3632	$40,000	$11.01	139d	1	0.18mi
1 Whippoorwill Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2483	$16,000	$6.44	2d	1	0.38mi
10 Fox Hollow Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2750	$30,000	$10.91	139d	1	0.40mi
3 1st Pl East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1930	$5,500	$2.85	84d	1	0.41mi
2941 Quogue Riverhead Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.5	2044	$80,000	$39.14	120d	1	0.42mi
7 Midhampton Ct Quogue, NY	5.0	4.0	2578	$20,000	$7.76	55d	1	0.59mi
114 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2201	$18,000	$8.18	114d	1	0.63mi
69 Whippoorwill Ln Patchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2945	$20,000	$6.79	0d	1	0.63mi
4 Box Tree Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.5	3000	$5,000	$1.67	51d	1	0.68mi
99 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3512	$95,000	$27.05	120d	1	0.78mi
24 Quogue Riverhead Rd Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	2054	$15,000	$7.30	120d	1	0.79mi
73 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.5	2400	$25,000	$10.42	114d	1	0.96mi
11 Post Xing East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2926	$20,000	$6.84	114d	1	1.05mi
718 Montauk Hwy East Quogue, NY	5.0	2.0	2500	$25,000	$10.00	120d	1	1.14mi
23 Park Cir Quogue, NY	5.0	3.0	3252	$5,500	$1.69	21d	1	1.15mi
19 Post Fields Ln Quogue, NY	5.0	4.5	3800	$30,000	$7.89	82d	1	1.21mi
3 Southwood Ln Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	1989	$20,000	$10.06	2d	1	1.29mi
143 Montauk Hwy Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2475	$30,000	$12.12	84d	1	1.38mi
9 The Registry East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.5	2734	$30,000	$10.97	139d	1	1.39mi
7 The Registry East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	3096	$30,000	$9.69	33d	1	1.40mi
10 Pennant Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2800	$80,000	$28.57	117d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 194 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 193 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 192 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $1,349,900 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 180 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 178 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 176 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 174 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 173 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 172 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 171 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 170 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 169 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 168 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 167 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 166 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 165 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 164 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 163 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 162 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 161 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 160 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 159 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 158 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 157 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 156 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 155 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 154 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 153 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 151 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 150 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 149 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 148 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 145 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 144 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 143 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 142 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 140 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 138 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $1,349,900 Active 137 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,732 · $1,311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,273 · $1,606/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,541/yr (+$295/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $318,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$75,615
• − Property taxes: −$15,732
• − Insurance: −$6,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$25,476
• − Management: −$25,476
• − Depreciation: −$39,270
• Taxable income: $130,136
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$31,233
• After-tax cash flow: $112,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $143,450–$258,210 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof replacement, exterior siding repair/replacement, flooring replacement, interior wall repair/replacement, and HVAC system replacement. Landscaping and fencing improvements will also enhance its curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,000–$150,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — Significant damage and missing shingles visible
• Major Windows (windows) — Visible damage and missing glass
• Major Electrical (electrical) — Exposed wiring and missing components
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — Exposed pipes and missing fixtures
• Major Exterior (exterior) — Significant damage and missing siding

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition and may need replacement.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is weathered and shows signs of decay, with peeling paint and missing shingles.
• Major flooring — The flooring appears to be in poor condition and may need replacement or repair.
• Major interior walls — The interior walls show signs of wear and tear and may need repair or replacement.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement or repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale exterior siding repair/replacement — A new exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale interior wall repair/replacement — New interior walls will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale and rental value. ↑
• Both fencing — A new fence will improve the home's privacy and increase its resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary East Quogue School B- NY #745/2,108 Nat'l #7,252/41,679

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• County: Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 5,871
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 5,871
• Household income: $106,875
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1185.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $1,349,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $1,399,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $1,580,000 BNYMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $1,650,000 BNYMLS
• 2020-02-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-29 Listed $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-25 Price Changed $1,300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-18 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-16 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $423,500 Public Records
• 1988-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $15,732 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.