123 Lawrence St · Dubach, LA 71235

$105,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1970 0.45 ac lot $89/sqft · 5% below area Est $111k · 5% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this 3 BR/ 2 BA home in downtown Dubach 12 miles from Ruston. This property has new carpet in all bedrooms, new air conditioner and fresh paint in the living room. You will love the charm of the original hardwood floors in the living area and the natural light in every room. The property has recently been modified to include access to the laundry room from the kitchen and a new hot water heater installed before closing. An additional bathroom was added to this property during ownership as well. This backyard is perfect for the next barbecue or watch your garden grow from the covered back patio. Check out the video showing for a narrated tour of this home. .

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New carpet
• New air conditioner

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• NEW AIR CONDITIONER
• FRESH PAINT
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• ACCESS TO LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#231 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Lincoln Parish (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #24 of 98 in LA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 171 units permitted in Lincoln Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lincoln County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.90%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,006
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -5.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8115 Hico St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+10%)	18mo	$108,000	$83	60
141 Lee St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,244 (+5%)	1mo	$144,850	$116	59
149 Rex St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-15%)	15mo	$88,580	$88	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $69,477
• Equity at exit: $94,592

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.63×
• Total profit: $194,834
• Equity at exit: $203,992

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71235

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $812

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $105,000 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Don't miss this 3 BR/ 2 BA home in downtown Dubach 12 miles from Ruston. This property has new carpet in all bedrooms, new air conditioner and fresh paint in the living room. You will love the charm of the original hardwood floors in the living area and the natural light in every room. The property has recently been modified to include access to the laundry room from the kitchen and a new hot water heater installed before closing. An additional bathroom was added to this property during ownership as well. This backyard is perfect for the next barbecue or watch your garden grow from the covered back patio. Check out the video showing for a narrated tour of this home. .

18. 2026-04-13
    price $110,000 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Don't miss this 3 BR/ 2 BA home in downtown Dubach 12 miles from Ruston. This property has new carpet in all bedrooms, new air conditioner and fresh paint in the living room. You will love the charm of the original hardwood floors in the living area and the natural light in every room. The property has recently been modified to include access to the laundry room from the kitchen and a new hot water heater installed before closing. An additional bathroom was added to this property during ownership as well. This backyard is perfect for the next barbecue or watch your garden grow from the covered back patio. Check out the video showing for a narrated tour of this home. .

19. 2026-03-27
    listed $115,000 Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Don't miss this 3 BR/ 2 BA home in downtown Dubach 12 miles from Ruston. This property has new carpet in all bedrooms, new air conditioner and fresh paint in the living room. You will love the charm of the original hardwood floors in the living area and the natural light in every room. The property has recently been modified to include access to the laundry room from the kitchen and a new hot water heater installed before closing. An additional bathroom was added to this property during ownership as well. This backyard is perfect for the next barbecue or watch your garden grow from the covered back patio. Check out the video showing for a narrated tour of this home. .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $578 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,015
• − Management: −$1,015
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $628
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$151
• After-tax cash flow: $2,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200990
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -27.00%
• Median HH income: $33,901
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5599
• State rank: #24 of 98 in LA

Livability — Dubach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #231
• US rank: #17585

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dubach, LA
• Population (ZIP): 3,979

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,595 people
• By 2030: 50,954 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 53,601 · +8.1%
• By 2050: 57,178 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 69,580 · +40.3%
• By 2100: 79,862 · +61.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Russian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.4) · D 36.5% · R 62.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.5pp · 2024: -25.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.4 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+12.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.36%
• Current HPI: 237.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $105,000 NELABOR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $110,000 NELABOR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $115,000 NELABOR

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.