401 E Buffalo St · Forney, TX 75126

$279,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,339 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1997 0.29 ac lot Est $271k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Major updates are already done — just move in and enjoy. This beautifully renovated single-story home in the heart of Forney offers five generously sized bedrooms, two full baths, and 2,339 square feet of flexible living space on a corner lot with no HOA and no known restrictions. Recent improvements include new luxury vinyl plank flooring, updated windows, fresh paint, upgraded HVAC, all-new plumbing, and completed foundation work backed by a transferable warranty — the kind of behind-the-walls peace of mind that's hard to find. The remodeled kitchen features granite countertops, built-in cabinetry, and an eat-in layout with plenty of prep and storage space, while the oversized

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Upgraded hvac
• No hoa

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NO HOA
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPGRADED HVAC
• ALL-NEW PLUMBING
• COMPLETED FOUNDATION WORK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No known restrictions
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking on site; Gravel parking; Outside parking available
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Built in 1997; Preowned condition; No accessibility features indicated; Subdivision: Cavadiar Add
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1997
• Exterior features: Corner lot with few trees; Zero lot line; Shed(s) / storage; Utilities easement

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in cabinets; Eat-in kitchen area; Granite countertops; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Additional bedrooms with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Walk-in closets; Two living areas; One dining area; 11 total rooms; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Stacked washer/dryer area; Utility room with utility closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-30 ($-362/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claybon El (math 55% / reading 58%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 575 students, 35% FRL); Warren Middle (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 903 students, 26% FRL); Forney H S (math 64% / reading 58%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,272 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Forney ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,424 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,324
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
401 S Bois D Arc St	0.50mi	5/4.5	2,112 (-10%)	9mo	$245,000	$116	43
210 Dartmouth Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,675 (+14%)	2mo	$299,900	$112	39
6605 Howell	0.54mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,665 (+14%)	6mo	$499,006	$187	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-51,351
• Equity at exit: $41,747

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-63,312
• Equity at exit: $24,208

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,714 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$589 /mo · $7,073/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $-30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,752

Max offer price $274,662

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $49	+0% $-30	+5% $-109	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-137	+0% $-30	+5% $77	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $41	base $-30	+0.5pp $-103	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 S Chestnut St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1831	$2,150	$1.17	26d	1	0.72mi
114 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	6.0	2.5	2837	$2,800	$0.99	45d	1	0.86mi
315 Forestwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2102	$2,085	$0.99	26d	1	0.94mi
280 Cisco Trl Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2476	$3,800	$1.53	26d	1	0.97mi
293 Arbury Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,590	$0.88	9d	1	1.10mi
293 Arbury Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,801	$0.96	26d	1	1.10mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2926	$2,725	$0.93	14d	1	1.14mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2926	$2,395	$0.82	45d	1	1.14mi
114 Cole St Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,529	$0.97	24d	1	1.18mi
203 Spruce Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2934	$2,350	$0.80	45d	1	1.21mi
108 Antler Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,449	$1.09	26d	1	1.24mi
213 Long Prairie Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1964	$2,025	$1.03	18d	1	1.25mi
511 Rosewood Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,070	$1.09	24d	1	1.28mi
1021 Ellis Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	3155	$2,995	$0.95	45d	1	1.31mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	24d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,990 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $279,990 Active
17. 2026-04-23
    soldstatus
18. 2025-09-12
    soldstatus
19. 2025-09-04
    soldstatus
20. 2025-05-13
    listed $325,000 Active
21. 2025-03-05
    historical
22. 2025-02-25
    listed $337,500 Active
23. 2025-02-25
    historical
24. 2025-02-13
    price $337,500
25. 2025-01-30
    price $355,000
26. 2025-01-17
    price $370,000
27. 2024-12-19
    listed $385,000 Active
28. 2024-10-16
    historical $2,200
29. 2024-10-04
    listed $2,200
30. 2024-04-04
    soldstatus
31. 2024-04-04
    soldstatus
32. 2023-11-17
    historical $3,200
33. 2023-10-26
    listed $3,200
34. 2023-10-19
    soldstatus
35. 2023-03-02
    soldstatus
36. 2022-11-15
    price $350,000
37. 2022-11-08
    listed $430,000 Active
38. 2022-09-20
    listed $80,000 Active
39. 2022-08-04
    soldstatus
40. 2016-08-18
    historical
41. 2016-04-26
    price $199,900
42. 2016-04-12
    listed $231,000 Active
43. 1995-12-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,073 · $589/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,073 · $589/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$7,073
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,606
• − Management: −$2,606
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,186
• After-tax cash flow: $824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+21.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $279,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-05-13 Listed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $337,500 NTREIS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $337,500 NTREIS
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $355,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-17 Price Changed $370,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-19 Listed $385,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-16 Rental Removed $2,200 NTREIS
• 2024-10-04 Listed for Rent $2,200 NTREIS
• 2024-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-17 Rental Removed $3,200 NTREIS
• 2023-10-26 Listed for Rent $3,200 NTREIS
• 2023-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-15 Price Changed $350,000 NTREIS
• 2022-11-08 Listed $430,000 NTREIS
• 2022-09-20 Listed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-08-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-04-26 Price Changed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2016-04-12 Listed $231,000 NTREIS
• 1995-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,073 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.