1295 S Cawston #443 · Hemet, CA 92545

$95,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 420 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 2002 1,742 sqft lot Est $116k · 17% under $292/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Mountain Shadows Community! This approximately 480 sq. ft. furnished single-wide home offers a fantastic opportunity for a seasonal getaway, retirement retreat, or investment property. Featuring 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom, this cozy residence is move-in ready and designed for easy, low-maintenance living. Located in the heart of Hemet, Mountain Shadows offers an array of amenities including a pool, gym, tennis courts, and more. Enjoy convenient access to nearby shopping, dining, fishing, and outdoor recreation, all while being just a short drive to both Temecula Wine Country and Palm Springs. Whether you're looking for an affordable full-time residence, vacation home, or income-pro

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Outdoor recreation
• Tennis courts

Tags

• FURNISHED SINGLE-WIDE HOME
• MOVE-IN READY
• POOL
• GYM
• TENNIS COURTS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Estimated living area; Property is a single unit in the development; Parcel number 460033065
• HOA & community: Part of Mountain Shadows association; Monthly HOA fee of $292; Association amenities include pool and spa; Senior community; Community features: biking, street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public/District water; Sewer or septic status unknown
• Home design: Planned development; Single-story; No shared/common walls
• Construction: Year built per assessor; No certified 433-A
• Exterior features: Manufactured house; Association pool; Association spa; Has a view; Lot density approximately 16–20 units per acre

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; All bedrooms on the main level; Entry on level 1; Has cooling (wall/window units)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available; Outside location; Stackable washer/dryer (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.9% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $663 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $96k implies a 380% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.58%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1295 S Cawston Ave #433	0.00mi	1/1.0	420 (0%)	6mo	$119,100	$284	95
1295 S Cawston Ave #359	0.00mi	1/1.0	400 (-5%)	0mo	$75,000	$188	92
1295 S Cawston #319	0.00mi	1/1.0	400 (-5%)	7mo	$79,500	$199	86
1295 S Cawston Ave #249	0.06mi	1/1.0	400 (-5%)	5mo	$110,000	$275	85
1295 S Cawston #271	0.07mi	1/1.0	400 (-5%)	5mo	$115,000	$288	85
1295 S Cawston Ave #378	0.00mi	1/1.0	400 (-5%)	9mo	$95,000	$238	85
1295 Cawston #124	0.00mi	1/1.0	400 (-5%)	13mo	$125,500	$314	81
1295 S Cawston Ave #236	0.00mi	1/1.0	400 (-5%)	14mo	$70,000	$175	80
1295 S Cawston Ave #82	0.08mi	1/1.0	400 (-5%)	11mo	$115,000	$288	79
1295 S Cawston Ave #503	0.00mi	1/1.0	460 (+10%)	8mo	$94,000	$204	78
1295 S Cawston Ave #297	0.11mi	1/1.5	400 (-5%)	9mo	$135,000	$338	77
1295 S Cawston Ave #344	0.00mi	1/1.0	480 (+14%)	5mo	$55,000	$115	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $5,075
• Equity at exit: $14,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $34,589
• Equity at exit: $8,292

Cash invested: $26,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92545

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $427/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$292
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,102

Max offer price $95,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,975
• Closing costs: $2,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $292 · $3,504/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $95,900 Active 6 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $427 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $729 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$302/yr (+$25/mo · 70.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,372
• − Property taxes: −$427
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,427
• − Management: −$1,427
• − HOA: −$3,504
• − Depreciation: −$2,790
• Taxable income: $2,411
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$579
• After-tax cash flow: $3,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hemet

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1056
• US rank: #25208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 137,670
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,982
• Household income: $63,770
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1813.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 35% Two or more races 17% Black 8% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.25%
• Current HPI: 356.9414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+813.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $95,900 CRMLS
• 2016-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2010-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1999-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2014): $427 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.