5674 W Bar X St · Tucson Estates, AZ 85713

$95,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1984 4,173 sqft lot $114/sqft · 12% below area Est $109k · 12% under $208/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in Ready! 2br 2ba home in the highly sought after Tucson Estates Community. Well-cared for home with a split-bedroom floorplan. Spacious kitchen and open floor-plan add to its charm. Amenities include an 18-hole executive golf course, swimming pools, hot-tub and spa, library, Circle Park and tennis. Also has it's own radio station. You own the land!

Key facts

• Tennis
• Swimming pools
• Own the land

Tags

• 18-HOLE EXECUTIVE GOLF COURSE
• SWIMMING POOLS
• HOT-TUB AND SPA
• LIBRARY
• TENNIS
• OWN THE LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $663 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $96k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,392 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.10%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,640
• List price: $95,900
• Delta: -11.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5573 W Box R St	0.14mi	2/1.5	840 (0%)	4mo	$154,000	$183	90
5732 W Box R St	0.14mi	2/1.0	832 (-1%)	3mo	$116,700	$140	87
5650 W Rocking Cir St	0.05mi	2/1.5	784 (-7%)	6mo	$97,000	$124	82
5620 W Bar St S	0.29mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	5mo	$110,000	$131	80
5636 W Circle Z St	0.17mi	2/1.0	896 (+7%)	5mo	$118,500	$132	74
5970 W Box R St #5	0.41mi	2/2.0	860 (+2%)	4mo	$45,000	$52	72
5575 W Bar St S	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	880 (+5%)	6mo	$70,000	$80	66
5517 W Bar X St	0.21mi	2/2.0	720 (-14%)	1mo	$77,700	$108	63
5501 W Rocking Circle St	0.23mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	4mo	$96,200	$134	60
5408 W Flying M St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	920 (+10%)	5mo	$60,000	$65	57
5337 W Rafter Circle St	0.49mi	2/2.0	928 (+10%)	3mo	$134,000	$144	55
6002 W Flying M St	0.39mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	1mo	$87,000	$121	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-11,337
• Equity at exit: $14,299

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-12,374
• Equity at exit: $8,292

Cash invested: $26,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $595/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$208
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,013

Max offer price $95,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $141	+0% $114	+5% $87	+10% $60
Rent	-10% $23	-5% $68	+0% $114	+5% $160	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $138	base $114	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,975
• Closing costs: $2,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5709 W Rocking Circle St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1050	$895	$0.85	44d	1	0.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $208 · $2,496/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,900 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,900 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,900 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,900 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,900 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,900 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,900 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,900 Active 232 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,900 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,900 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,900 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,900 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,900 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $95,900 Active 224 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    historical Active Contingent 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Move in Ready! 2br 2ba home in the highly sought after Tucson Estates Community. Well-cared for home with a split-bedroom floorplan. Spacious kitchen and open floor-plan add to its charm. Amenities include an 18-hole executive golf course, swimming pools, hot-tub and spa, library, Circle Park and tennis. Also has it's own radio station. You own the land!

16. 2026-05-01
    price $95,900 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Move in Ready! 2br 2ba home in the highly sought after Tucson Estates Community. Well-cared for home with a split-bedroom floorplan. Spacious kitchen and open floor-plan add to its charm. Amenities include an 18-hole executive golf course, swimming pools, hot-tub and spa, library, Circle Park and tennis. Also has it's own radio station. You own the land!

17. 2026-04-29
    price $94,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Move in Ready! 2br 2ba home in the highly sought after Tucson Estates Community. Well-cared for home with a split-bedroom floorplan. Spacious kitchen and open floor-plan add to its charm. Amenities include an 18-hole executive golf course, swimming pools, hot-tub and spa, library, Circle Park and tennis. Also has it's own radio station. You own the land!

18. 2026-03-15
    status Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Move in Ready! 2br 2ba home in the highly sought after Tucson Estates Community. Well-cared for home with a split-bedroom floorplan. Spacious kitchen and open floor-plan add to its charm. Amenities include an 18-hole executive golf course, swimming pools, hot-tub and spa, library, Circle Park and tennis. Also has it's own radio station. You own the land!

19. 2026-03-02
    historical Active Contingent 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Move in Ready! 2br 2ba home in the highly sought after Tucson Estates Community. Well-cared for home with a split-bedroom floorplan. Spacious kitchen and open floor-plan add to its charm. Amenities include an 18-hole executive golf course, swimming pools, hot-tub and spa, library, Circle Park and tennis. Also has it's own radio station. You own the land!

20. 2026-02-13
    price $99,000 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Move in Ready! 2br 2ba home in the highly sought after Tucson Estates Community. Well-cared for home with a split-bedroom floorplan. Spacious kitchen and open floor-plan add to its charm. Amenities include an 18-hole executive golf course, swimming pools, hot-tub and spa, library, Circle Park and tennis. Also has it's own radio station. You own the land!

21. 2025-11-19
    price $129,500 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Move in Ready! 2br 2ba home in the highly sought after Tucson Estates Community. Well-cared for home with a split-bedroom floorplan. Spacious kitchen and open floor-plan add to its charm. Amenities include an 18-hole executive golf course, swimming pools, hot-tub and spa, library, Circle Park and tennis. Also has it's own radio station. You own the land!

22. 2025-10-11
    listed $134,500 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Move in Ready! 2br 2ba home in the highly sought after Tucson Estates Community. Well-cared for home with a split-bedroom floorplan. Spacious kitchen and open floor-plan add to its charm. Amenities include an 18-hole executive golf course, swimming pools, hot-tub and spa, library, Circle Park and tennis. Also has it's own radio station. You own the land!

23. 2021-06-18
    soldstatus $45,000
24. 1994-07-05
    soldstatus $29,000 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Cash Or Submit Great 14x60 Schult Anniversary Model Mh In Tucson Estates Has Awning On Both Sides Competively Priced To Sell Show And Sell

25. 1994-07-05
    soldstatus $29,000

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Cash Or Submit Great 14x60 Schult Anniversary Model Mh In Tucson Estates Has Awning On Both Sides Competively Priced To Sell Show And Sell

26. 1994-02-11
    listed $33,000 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Cash Or Submit Great 14x60 Schult Anniversary Model Mh In Tucson Estates Has Awning On Both Sides Competively Priced To Sell Show And Sell

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $595 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $633 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$38/yr (+$3/mo · 6.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,372
• − Property taxes: −$595
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − HOA: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$2,790
• Taxable loss: −$64
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$15
• After-tax cash flow: $1,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+190.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $95,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $94,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-15 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-02 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $99,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $129,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-11 Listed $134,500 MLSSAZ
• 2021-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1994-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1994-07-05 Sold (MLS) $29,000 MLSSAZ
• 1994-02-11 Listed $33,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $595 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.