2860 S Camino El Greco · Green Valley, AZ 85622

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 929 sqft · Townhouse public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1979 3,528 sqft lot Est $205k · at est. $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PERFECT DESERT HILLS 2 GEM! VIEW THE SANTA RITAS FROM YOUR LIVING ROOM AND FRONT COURTYARD. IN THE BACK YARD YOU HAVE PRIVACY ON THE COMMON AREA! COMPLETELY FURNISHED FOR AN EASY MOVE-IN OR INVESTMENT. BRING YOUR GOLF CLUBS...AND YOUR TOOTHBRUSH!! KITCHEN NICELY UPDATED - REFACED LIGHT OAK CABINETS. NEW COUNTER TOPS, REFRIGERATOR, AND HOT WATER HEATER. LIGHT BRIGHT END UNIT! CHARMING SCREENED ARIZONA ROOM. GUEST PARKING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE STREET. QUIET! FRESHLY PAINTED!

Key facts

• Double closet
• Updated windows
• Arizona room

Tags

• UPDATED WINDOWS
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• ARIZONA ROOM
• PEACEFUL BACKYARD
• DOUBLE CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; HOA fee $43 monthly; HOA pays common area maintenance; No association amenities listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Covered carport space (1)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected; Phone connected
• Home design: Townhouse; One story; Faces southeast
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Patio; Block and wrought iron fencing; Decorative gravel; Subdivided lot; East/West exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric range
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Engineered wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Exhaust fan; Disposal; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $329 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,862 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.97%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,309
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2838 S Calle Mancha	0.22mi	2/2.0	929 (0%)	5mo	$214,900	$231	86
952 W Camino Asturias	0.21mi	2/2.0	962 (+4%)	2mo	$215,000	$223	83
1382 W Camino Tolteca	0.38mi	2/2.0	945 (+2%)	8mo	$205,000	$217	72
1525 W Vía Del Jarrito	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,017 (+10%)	0mo	$205,000	$202	64
2780 S Camino Selva	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,026 (+10%)	10mo	$218,000	$212	62
1552 W Via Del Jarrito	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,017 (+10%)	1mo	$185,000	$182	61
1512 W Via Del Jarrito	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,017 (+10%)	5mo	$220,000	$216	61
3073 S Calle Pueblo	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,041 (+12%)	5mo	$190,000	$183	60
1520 W Via Del Jarrito	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,017 (+10%)	10mo	$233,000	$229	56
1561 W Via Del Jarrito	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,017 (+10%)	7mo	$243,000	$239	56
1548 W Via Del Jarrito	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,017 (+10%)	11mo	$224,500	$221	54
1236 W Camino Del Pato	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,060 (+14%)	2mo	$260,000	$245	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $10,440
• Equity at exit: $59,694

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $55,969
• Equity at exit: $73,085

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85622

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,311/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,625

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2807 S Calle Trafalgar Unit NA Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	966	$1,650	$1.71	24d	1	0.10mi
1098 W Camino Sagasta Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,600	$2.33	24d	1	0.19mi
1430 W Camino Lucientes Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,500	$1.46	24d	1	0.35mi
1400 Placita Apache Unit X Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	987	$1,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.42mi
1230 W Camino del Pato Green Valley, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$3,200	$3.02	17d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    listed $199,900 Active
15. 2021-10-08
    soldstatus $179,000
16. 2012-09-25
    soldstatus $72,500
17. 2012-09-20
    soldstatus $72,500 Closed 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    PERFECT DESERT HILLS 2 GEM! VIEW THE SANTA RITAS FROM YOUR LIVING ROOM AND FRONT COURTYARD. IN THE BACK YARD YOU HAVE PRIVACY ON THE COMMON AREA! COMPLETELY FURNISHED FOR AN EASY MOVE-IN OR INVESTMENT. BRING YOUR GOLF CLUBS...AND YOUR TOOTHBRUSH!! KITCHEN NICELY UPDATED - REFACED LIGHT OAK CABINETS. NEW COUNTER TOPS, REFRIGERATOR, AND HOT WATER HEATER. LIGHT BRIGHT END UNIT! CHARMING SCREENED ARIZONA ROOM. GUEST PARKING DIRECTLY ACROSS THE STREET. QUIET! FRESHLY PAINTED!

18. 1992-07-31
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,319 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$8/yr (+$1/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,311
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$120
• After-tax cash flow: $2,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• City population: 25,381
• Population (ZIP): 6,345

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 225.8384
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+270.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $199,900 MLSSAZ
• 2021-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 2012-09-20 Sold (MLS) $72,500 MLSSAZ
• 1992-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,311 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.