551 Summit Trail Trl #79 · Granby, CO 80446

$234,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

Built 2020 Est $304k · 23% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Mountain Retreat on Premium Corner Lot in Granby, Colorado Welcome to your dream mountain home, ideally situated on a premium corner lot in the heart of Smith Creek Crossing. Just steps from the vibrant community clubhouse, this beautifully landscaped property offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. Inside, you'll find a spacious, open-concept layout filled with natural light from expansive windows that frame the scenic surroundings. Thoughtful built-in storage enhances functionality throughout, while soft, rounded corners, 10' ceilings, and a tray ceiling in the living room add a touch of architectural elegance. The kitchen is a true centerpiece, designed in

Key facts

• Large windows
• Premium corner lot
• Landscaped areas

Tags

• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• LANDSCAPED AREAS
• STEPS FROM CLUBHOUSE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREAS
• EXTRA BUILT-IN STORAGE
• LARGE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has view; Located in SMITH CREEK CROSSING subdivision
• Financial info: Land is leased (monthly land lease $871)
• HOA & community: Community trash service; Community spa / hot tub; On-site laundry; Storage; Fitness center; Snow removal

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service on property
• Home design: Mobile home; Residential property
• Exterior features: Level, corner lot with views; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range/Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s); Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included; Washer hookup on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $778 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 1.4% in Granby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#85 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granby Elementary School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #300 of 966 statewide, top 32%, 331 students, 38% FRL); East Grand Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 290 students, 22% FRL); Middle Park High School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #78 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 406 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 424 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,199/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 105% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.49%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,668
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
551 Summit Trail Trl #22	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,586 (-7%)	12mo	$255,000	$161	69
551 Summit Trail Trl #34	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-6%)	21mo	$285,000	$178	63
551 Summit Trl #142	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-6%)	16mo	$255,000	$159	59
495 New Church Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (+8%)	13mo	$780,000	$422	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $11,635
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $74,474
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80446

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$294 /mo · $3,524/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $778

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,213

Max offer price $234,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $941	-5% $860	+0% $778	+5% $697	+10% $616
Rent	-10% $526	-5% $652	+0% $778	+5% $905	+10% $1,031
Rate	-1.0pp $897	-0.5pp $838	base $778	+0.5pp $717	+1.0pp $656

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,900 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,900 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,900 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $234,900 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,900 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,900 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 185 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 184 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 183 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,900 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 179 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 178 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 177 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 176 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 175 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    status Active
17. 2026-04-15
    historical
18. 2025-11-25
    status Active
19. 2025-11-22
    status Pending
20. 2025-11-05
    listed $239,900 Active
21. 2025-06-01
    historical
22. 2025-06-01
    historical
23. 2025-02-13
    price $285,000
24. 2025-02-13
    price $285,000
25. 2025-02-13
    price $285,000
26. 2025-01-09
    price $299,000
27. 2025-01-09
    price $299,000
28. 2024-10-19
    price $299,000
29. 2024-09-30
    listed $310,000 Active
30. 2024-09-30
    listed $310,000 Active
31. 2024-09-05
    price $310,000
32. 2024-07-30
    listed $315,000 Active
33. 2024-07-30
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$3,524
• − Insurance: −$2,677
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,071
• − Management: −$3,071
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable income: $6,050
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,452
• After-tax cash flow: $7,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

Livability — Granby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granby, CO
• County: Grand County · 5,874 people
• City population: 4,017
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,017
• Household income: $74,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Portuguese 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 347.8691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-23.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — GCAR
• 2026-04-15 Delisted — GCAR
• 2025-11-25 Relisted — GCAR
• 2025-11-22 Pending — GCAR
• 2025-11-05 Listed $239,900 GCAR
• 2025-06-01 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2025-06-01 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $285,000 GCAR
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $285,000 IRES
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $285,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $299,000 IRES
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $299,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-19 Price Changed $299,000 GCAR
• 2024-09-30 Listed $310,000 IRES
• 2024-09-30 Listed $310,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $310,000 GCAR
• 2024-07-30 Listed $315,000 GCAR
• 2024-07-30 Coming Soon — GCAR