14166 Main St · French Gulch, CA 96033

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,071 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 185 Days on market

Built 2024 2.90 ac lot ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming Victorian with Guest House/ADU (Built in 2024) - Full of Historic Potential! Discover a rare opportunity to own a piece of history with this approx. 2,071 sq ft Victorian home brimming with character and significant historical value once owned by Ezra Erich who was a very talented and well known geologist in French Gulch and the owner of the Brown Bear mine. Nestled on a 2.9 acre lot, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom main house offers endless potential for restoration enthusiasts or those seeking a unique project. While the home needs work, its classic Victorian details—think ornate trim, high ceilings, and timeless charm—make it a gem waiting to be polished. The property als

Key facts

• Historic potential
• Guest house
• High ceilings

Tags

• GUEST HOUSE
• ACCESSORY DWELLING UNIT
• HISTORIC POTENTIAL
• CLASSIC VICTORIAN DETAILS
• ORNATE TRIM
• HIGH CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 2.9 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Boat parking; Oversized parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and two levels
• Construction: Wood siding; Raised foundation; Composition roof; Built as a residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Rolling slope lot; Asphalt road access; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Has heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#834 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,746 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.90%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $14,327
• Equity at exit: $107,869

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $71,510
• Equity at exit: $166,240

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96033

• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,077

Max offer price $199,436

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-93	-5% $-161	+0% $-229	+5% $-297	+10% $-365
Rent	-10% $-370	-5% $-300	+0% $-229	+5% $-158	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-108	-0.5pp $-168	base $-229	+0.5pp $-291	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,900 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $239,900 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 168 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 167 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 166 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 165 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    status Active
19. 2026-04-29
    status Pending
20. 2026-04-23
    price $250,000
21. 2026-03-30
    price $275,000
22. 2026-03-03
    price $289,900
23. 2025-12-10
    listed $299,900 Active
24. 2025-12-05
    price $299,900
25. 2025-11-15
    price $325,000
26. 2025-10-06
    price $349,900
27. 2025-08-15
    listed $375,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,600 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,600 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,600
• − Insurance: −$1,997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,716
• − Management: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$6,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,679
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — French Gulch

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #834
• US rank: #23173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Gulch, CA
• Population (ZIP): 245

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% German 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Chinese 6% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-04-29 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $250,000 SAOR
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $275,000 SAOR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $289,900 SAOR
• 2025-12-10 Listed $299,900 SAOR
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $299,900 SAOR
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $325,000 SAOR
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $349,900 SAOR
• 2025-08-15 Listed $375,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,600 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.