3133 San Francisco Ln · Sebring, FL 33870

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 862 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1972 4,000 sqft lot $55/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY NICE, WELL MAINTAINED, 2 BR, 2 BA MOBILE HOME LOCATED IN FRANCIS 2 MOBILE HOME PARK, FRIENDLY, DESIREABLE 55+ COMMUNITY WITH CLUBHOUSE, HEATED SWIMMING POOL AND SHUFFLE BOARD COURT. NOT LOT RENT HERE! YOU OWN YOUR LOT! NEW CENTRAL A/C UNIT INSTALLED THIS YEAR. FINISHED PORCH ON NORTH & SOUTH SIDE OF HOME. SCREENED PORCH ON FRONT. PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD "AS IS" WITH RIGHT TO INSPECT. PERFECT HOME FOR YEAR ROUND LIVING OR FOR A WINTER RETREAT TO ESCAPE THE COLD WEATHER UP NORTH! CALL ME AND MAKE AN APPT TO SEE IN PERSON!

Key facts

• Renovated
• Freshly painted
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• AFFORDABLE UPDATED HOME
• FURNISHED MANUFACTURED HOME
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• RENOVATED
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• REMODELED EAT IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessible full bath and grip-accessible features; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; limits on number and size may apply)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $55 monthly fee; Community clubhouse; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Driveway; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story; HillCrest make; Model noted on deed; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Frame construction with metal siding; Metal/other roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Front porch; Screened porch; Side porch; Community pool access; No private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Electric heating; Wall-mounted air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High-speed internet; Blinds; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.3% in Sebring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 475 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $120k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.24%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,856
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2732 Desoto Rd	0.26mi	2/2.0	876 (+2%)	10mo	$77,000	$88	77
3117 San Francisco Ln	0.02mi	2/1.5	922 (+7%)	12mo	$89,900	$98	75
3234 San Francisco Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	952 (+10%)	10mo	$65,000	$68	71
3126 San Francisco Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	962 (+12%)	14mo	$76,900	$80	63
3155 Rose Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0	942 (+9%)	24mo	$85,000	$90	59
2742 Cactus Ln	0.51mi	2/2.0	800 (-7%)	22mo	$32,000	$40	46
30457 Francis St	0.71mi	2/2.0	942 (+9%)	16mo	$97,000	$103	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-12,011
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-10,432
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33870

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 475
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,121/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,047

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8761 Watersound Cir Sebring, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1090	$1,210	$1.11	20d	1	0.84mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $119,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 691-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,121 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,121 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,121
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $196
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$47
• After-tax cash flow: $2,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highlands
• NCES district ID: 1200840
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,276
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4672
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sebring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #618
• US rank: #11992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Highlands County · 98,898 people
• City population: 50,797
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,195
• Household income: $49,942
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Highlands County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,674 people
• By 2030: 99,615 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 99,342 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 98,242 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 93,291 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 79,894 · -19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Highlands

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 29.3% · R 70.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+32.0 2012: R+23.0 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.68%
• Current HPI: 273.9861
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.29%
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+280.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $119,900 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2017-09-26 Sold (MLS) $38,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2017-08-26 Listed $39,900 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2003-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1996-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1995-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,121 · +133.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.