6727 Chert Chase · Elmendorf, TX 78112

$139,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · Townhouse · 229 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $102/sqft · 5% below area Est $148k · 5% under $106/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($368/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Elmendorf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,189 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Floresville ISD (town): math 32% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #504 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $737 of equity ($968 loan paydown + $-231 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,652
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: -5.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,141
• Equity at exit: $39,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $17,280
• Equity at exit: $46,569

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78112

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,359

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14613 Mudstone PL Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.5	1692	$1,625	$0.96	44d	1	0.03mi
6730 Rosemary Rdg Elmendorf, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,295	$1.09	44d	1	0.03mi
6718 Rosemary Rdg Elmendorf, TX	3.0	2.5	1189	$1,295	$1.09	44d	1	0.03mi
14609 Mudstone PL Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,395	$0.94	3d	1	0.03mi
6734 Pumice PL Elmendorf, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,395	$0.91	12d	1	0.03mi
6734 Pumice PL Elmendorf, TX	4.0	3.0	1535	$1,395	$0.91	10d	1	0.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $139,999 Pending 229 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,999 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,999 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,999 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,999 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $139,999 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-05-13
   price $142,999 455-char remark

   Show marketing remark (455 chars)

   The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-05-08
   price $143,999 455-char remark

   Show marketing remark (455 chars)

   The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

9. 2026-04-30
   price $163,999 455-char remark

   Show marketing remark (455 chars)

   The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-04-17
    price $165,999 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

11. 2025-11-12
    price $170,999 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

12. 2025-10-24
    price $159,999 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

13. 2025-10-18
    listed $160,999 New 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    The Denley - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$456
• After-tax cash flow: $823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-level townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious open floorplan and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Both New flooring — Can improve the look and feel of the home
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both New flooring — Can improve the look and feel of the home ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Floresville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819350
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,736
• Composite: 30.44/100
• National rank: #6234
• State rank: #504 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elmendorf

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1189
• US rank: #20804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,959

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,434 people
• By 2030: 63,912 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 74,704 · +27.8%
• By 2050: 85,024 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 111,025 · +90.0%
• By 2100: 126,692 · +116.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 39% White 24% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.9% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+48.4 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 276.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $142,999 LERA
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $143,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $163,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $165,999 LERA
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $170,999 LERA
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $159,999 LERA
• 2025-10-18 Listed $160,999 LERA