🌊 Lakefront
91 Hibridge Cir · Derry, PA
Flood risk 7/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- X
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.76%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 95°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 1.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +19.3/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- DSCR +6.1/10.0
- 1% rule +4.1/10.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- Schools +3.2/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$105,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Discover this private, low-maintenance home located on Hibridge Circle! This property offers a sizeable lot with a detached garage, and a 1 bed/1 bath home with a short commute to amenities. The rear yard is surrounded by trees and woods for optimal privacy. House is located off of Back Maitland Rd.
Key facts
- Low-maintenance
- Sizeable lot
- Optimal privacy
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: Detached garage; Garage with door opener; 1 detached garage space plus 1 additional garage space (2 total garage/parking spaces); Driveway parking for 1 vehicle
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
- Home design: Detached structure; Metal roof
- Construction: Vinyl siding; Block and stone foundation; Built year per assessor
- Exterior features: Private setting; Backs to trees; Partly wooded lot; Porch(es); Above-grade and below-grade structures
Interior
- Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove
- Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
- Flooring: Vinyl; Wood
- Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (including main level full bath)
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wood-burning stove; Oil and wood fuel options for heating; Window cooling (electric)
- Interior features: Partially furnished; Full basement; Double hung windows; 4 total rooms
- Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric hot water
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $106k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($720/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (8.9% below list).
- Recommended offer: $97k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.4% in Derry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 67/100 on livability (#952 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Mifflin County SD (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #380 of 539 in PA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: East Derry El Sch (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,518 statewide, top 68%, 276 students, 100% FRL); Mifflin Co Ms (math 16% / reading 51%, grade F, #342 of 512 statewide, top 67%, 689 students, 59% FRL); Mifflin Co Hs (math 76% / reading 24%, grade D+, #133 of 437 statewide, top 30%, 1,086 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 44% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Mifflin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $732 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Mifflin County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Negotiation context
- Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
- What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
- Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.91% ✗
- Cap rate
- 7.60%
- Cash-on-cash
- 4.68%
- DSCR
- 1.21
- GRM
- 9.1
CMA / ARV
No comps found within radius.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -12.5%
- Equity multiple
- 0.55×
- Total profit
- $-13,341
- Equity at exit
- $15,790
- IRR
- -3.4%
- Equity multiple
- 0.77×
- Total profit
- $-6,710
- Equity at exit
- $9,156
Cash invested: $29,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 17044
- Home prices YoY
- -6.7%
- Active inventory
- 73
- Price-to-rent
- 9.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $965 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$555
- Tax from tax record
- −$47 /mo · $569/yr
- Insurance
- −$44
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$56 /mo · $666/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$203
- Net cashflow
- $60
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $120 | -5% $90 | +0% $60 | +5% $30 | +10% $0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-16 | -5% $22 | +0% $60 | +5% $98 | +10% $136 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $113 | -0.5pp $87 | base $60 | +0.5pp $33 | +1.0pp $5 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $26,475
- Closing costs
- $3,177
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 4 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $105,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $105,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
-
2026-06-17remarks 300-char remark
-
2026-06-17$105,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $569 · $47/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,121 · $93/mo
- Expected delta
- +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 97.2%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 76% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $11,581
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,932
- − Property taxes
- −$569
- − Insurance
- −$1,196
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$926
- − Management
- −$926
- − Depreciation
- −$3,081
- Taxable loss
- −$1,049
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$252
- After-tax cash flow
- $972/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Mifflin County SD
- NCES district ID
- 4215290
- Math proficiency
- 28% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 49% ▼ -9.00%
- Median HH income
- $40,718
- Composite
- 32.28/100
- National rank
- #5755
- State rank
- #380 of 539 in PA
Livability — Derry
- Score
- 67/100
- State rank
- #952
- US rank
- #10435
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Population (ZIP)
- 20,526
Population outlook (Mifflin County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 44,611 people
- By 2030
- 43,212 · -3.1%
- By 2040
- 40,197 · -9.9%
- By 2050
- 36,813 · -17.5%
- By 2075
- 28,833 · -35.4%
- By 2100
- 20,296 · -54.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (92%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Polish 2% Serbian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 1%
- Languages at home
- 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Mifflin
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+56.4) · D 21.4% · R 77.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -56.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+56.4 2020: R+56.1 2016: R+57.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+33.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -15.27%
- Current HPI
- 214.2729
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
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| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
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| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
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| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
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| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $105,900 BRIGHT MLS
Property tax history
+0.6%/yrLatest (2026): $569 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…