21892 Stone Meadows Rd · Palo Cedro, CA 96073

$299,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,484 sqft · Manufactured public records · 273 Days on market

Built 2004 2.01 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2004 Manufactured home on a permanent foundation located in Palo Cedro on 2 acres. This home is a fixer but has a lot to offer with 2484 sq. ft. , 3 bedrooms, living room, family room, office, 2.5 bathrooms, pantry, laundry room and 2 sided fireplace. There is a covered deck area, Bella Vista Water District and plenty of room for a shop and partially fenced. Close to schools and shopping.

Key facts

• Partially fenced
• Covered deck area
• Permanent foundation

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• COVERED DECK AREA
• BELLA VISTA WATER DISTRICT
• PARTIALLY FENCED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured residential property; One story
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Level lot; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Heating present
• Interior features: Disposal; Tile flooring; Wood-burning fireplace in family room and living room; Central air conditioning; Has heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($117/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in Palo Cedro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#332 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,917 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-47,792
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-40,656
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96073

• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$375 /mo · $4,497/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,617

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 269 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,000 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 259 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 256 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 255 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 254 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 253 DOM
18. 2025-12-23
    price $299,000
19. 2025-09-19
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,497 · $375/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,497 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 41 unhealthy d/yr today · 47 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,497
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,524
• − Management: −$2,524
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,937
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,185
• After-tax cash flow: $1,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Palo Cedro

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #11331

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palo Cedro, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,633

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.79%
• Current HPI: 137.2823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $299,000 SAOR
• 2025-09-19 Listed $325,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,497 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.