4145 Janes Rd · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$114,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1953 0.69 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.69 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential single-family
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: HOA information not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (approximately 1.5 car)
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Septic sewer system; Water source: Other
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 102 x 270 (0.69 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not provided
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $788 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 16% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $112,290 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.70%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $62,586
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3706 Janes Rd	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,048 (-5%)	15mo	$60,000	$57	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,310
• Equity at exit: $16,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $26,529
• Equity at exit: $9,857

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,287 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $726/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $893

Max offer price $114,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $343	+0% $311	+5% $279	+10% $247
Rent	-10% $209	-5% $260	+0% $311	+5% $362	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $340	base $311	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-06
   price $114,000
4. 2026-05-06
   price $114,000
5. 2026-04-08
   listed $98,000 Active
6. 2026-04-08
   listed $98,000 Active
7. 2008-10-31
   historical
8. 2008-10-31
   historical
9. 2008-08-11
   listed $67,900
10. 2008-08-11
    listed $67,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $726 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,241 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$515/yr (+$43/mo · 70.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$726
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,236
• − Management: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable income: $1,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$475
• After-tax cash flow: $3,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+67.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $114,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $114,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-08 Listed $98,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-08 Listed $98,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-10-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-10-31 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-08-11 Listed $67,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-08-11 Listed $67,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $726 · -55.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.