24 Evans Ave · Trenton, NJ 08638

$150,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · Townhouse public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1918 2,165 sqft lot Est $219k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1918
• Listed 21 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Semi-detached property; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Other foundation type; Above- and below-grade structures present; Year built reported by assessor
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 17.9 x 121 feet; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Other heating type reported; Other hot water system
• Interior features: Basement with combination finishes

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $933 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,524/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 1185% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.66%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,104
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Evans Ave	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,348 (+1%)	8mo	$220,000	$163	88
92 Evans Ave	0.12mi	4/1.5	1,368 (+2%)	8mo	$279,000	$204	82
119 Wayne Ave	0.36mi	4/1.5	1,318 (-1%)	6mo	$170,000	$129	74
535 Brunswick Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,223 (-8%)	4mo	$200,000	$164	65
1542 Princeton Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,330 (-0%)	5mo	$305,000	$229	60
224 Phillips Ave	0.25mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,210 (-9%)	8mo	$300,000	$248	59
1242 N Olden Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,290 (-3%)	6mo	$167,000	$129	57
50 Kelsey Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,291 (-3%)	7mo	$200,000	$155	55
224 Miller St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,503 (+12%)	8mo	$245,000	$163	53
55 Heil Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,200 (-10%)	8mo	$224,999	$187	51
712 Ohio Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (+4%)	9mo	$220,000	$159	47
100 Monument Pl	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,156 (-14%)	7mo	$209,000	$181	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $35,958
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $111,304
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08638

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,544/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $933

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,343

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,018	-5% $975	+0% $933	+5% $891	+10% $848
Rent	-10% $734	-5% $833	+0% $933	+5% $1,033	+10% $1,132
Rate	-1.0pp $1,009	-0.5pp $971	base $933	+0.5pp $894	+1.0pp $855

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 W Ingham Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1126	$2,000	$1.78	14d	1	0.24mi
24 New Trent St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,350	$1.76	14d	1	0.32mi
134 Old Rose St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	21d	1	0.40mi
1314 Princeton Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,400	$2.20	14d	1	0.43mi
42 Grant St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	14d	1	0.62mi
901 Brunswick Ave #7 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	940	$2,800	$2.98	14d	1	0.63mi
331 Ellis Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1190	$2,275	$1.91	21d	1	0.67mi
1100 Prospect St Unit 1 Ewing Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	21d	1	0.68mi
125 Olive St Trenton, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	896	$1,392	$1.55	21d	1	0.70mi
21 Bellevue Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.73mi
319 Rutherford Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	21d	1	0.84mi
311 Calhoun St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1516	$2,400	$1.58	44d	1	0.89mi
1040 Indiana Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1232	$2,950	$2.39	14d	1	1.00mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	21d	1	1.01mi
311 Spring St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	14d	1	1.05mi
186 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1064	$2,400	$2.26	5d	1	1.05mi
510 W Hanover St Trenton, NJ	5.0	1.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	14d	1	1.09mi
417 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	992	$2,050	$2.07	21d	1	1.10mi
510 N Hermitage Ave Trenton, NJ	5.0	1.5	1316	$2,500	$1.90	13d	1	1.10mi
1165 E State St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	14d	1	1.11mi
416 Klagg Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1034	$2,300	$2.22	21d	1	1.12mi
600 Artisan St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,650	$1.90	13d	3	1.17mi
600 Artisan St Unit 126 Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,650	$1.90	21d	1	1.17mi
239 Ardmore Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,750	$1.65	21d	1	1.32mi
219 Woodlawn Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1456	$2,355	$1.62	14d	1	1.36mi
649 W State St Trenton, NJ	5.0	2.0	1870	$2,900	$1.55	13d	1	1.39mi
20 N Overbrook Ave Unit B Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1518	$2,300	$1.52	13d	1	1.43mi
92 Pennwood Dr Ewing, NJ	4.0	3.0	1702	$3,850	$2.26	14d	1	1.43mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	14d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    historical $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,140 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$595/yr (+$50/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,544
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,423
• − Management: −$2,423
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $9,384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,252
• After-tax cash flow: $8,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 22,816
• Household income: $66,875
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1185.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 43% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.00%
• Current HPI: 334.5143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.31%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Coming Soon $150,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,544 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.