17 Pinetree Cir · Valdosta, GA 31601

$130,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,175 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1971 0.29 ac lot Est $113k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers A comfortable living space with plenty of room for family, guests, or a home office. Featuring a functional layout, FOUR bedrooms, AND a cozy atmosphere; this property is perfect for first-time homebuyers or investors looking to add to their portfolio.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 24 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessible entrance

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer, Masonite, and wood siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump
• Interior features: Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Valdosta City (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #149 of 174 in GA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $130k implies a 603% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,385 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.58%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,800
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Wesley Ln	0.14mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,175 (0%)	4mo	$68,750	$59	85
1324 Partridge Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (+6%)	16mo	$119,000	$96	62
607 Way St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,151 (-2%)	1mo	$32,000	$28	58
6 Sharper Cir	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,104 (-6%)	15mo	$143,800	$130	55
4 Martin Luther King, Jr. Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,327 (+13%)	8mo	$165,000	$124	53
517 Hudson St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-12%)	16mo	$62,000	$60	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,928
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $39,450
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31601

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $647/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,000

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
825 Bethune Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.0	834	$895	$1.07	21d	1	0.43mi
808 Penny Pl Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	43d	1	0.53mi
704 Conoley Ave Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,250	$0.96	43d	1	0.90mi
803 Lausanne Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.0	994	$1,095	$1.10	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-25
    listed $130,000 Active
19. 1972-03-09
    soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,196 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$549/yr (+$46/mo · 84.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$647
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$125
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$30
• After-tax cash flow: $2,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valdosta City
• NCES district ID: 1305310
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,634
• Composite: 14.79/100
• National rank: #9388
• State rank: #149 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valdosta, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 31,302
• Household income: $36,111
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2016.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.12%
• Current HPI: 121.5948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.34%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+602.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $130,000 SGMLS
• 1972-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $647 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.