16 Robin Rd · Copake Lake, NY 12521

$375,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1955 6,098 sqft lot $521/sqft · 38% above area Est $490k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

WOWZA!!! THIS IS AN AMAZING NEW PRICE AND JUST IN TIME FOR SUMMER AT COPAKE LAKE! This home has undergone a complete transformation. Much of the structure was taken down to the frame and rebuilt with precision, resulting in a modern, energy-efficient retreat designed for comfort, style, and long-term durability. Today, the home offers new interior and exterior walls, roof, plumbing, electrical, insulation, and high-efficiency mechanical systems with mini-split heating and cooling. Every upgrade was carefully selected for quality and performance. Sunlight fills the interior, creating a warm, inviting atmosphere throughout. The family room features a wood-burning fireplace and serene lake v

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Lake views
• Backup generator

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• LAKE VIEWS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• BUTCHER BLOCK KITCHEN
• UV TREATED WATER SYSTEM
• BACKUP GENERATOR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community offers golf access; Community offers lake access; Community has a restaurant

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Front yard fencing; Vinyl fencing; Shed(s); Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: ENERGY STAR qualified refrigerator; Free-standing gas oven; Free-standing range; Microwave; Range hood; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Has heating
• Interior features: ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater; Walk-out basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $375k).
• Recommended offer: $364k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $375k implies a 1150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $363,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.19%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $490,000
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -23.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $283,187
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.35×
• Total profit: $771,540
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12521

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,482 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,115/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$941
• Net cashflow: $1,241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,910

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $375,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $375,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $375,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $375,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $375,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    status Active 1619-char remark
18. 2026-05-18
    historical 1619-char remark
19. 2026-05-15
    price $375,000 1619-char remark
20. 2026-05-08
    status Active 1619-char remark
21. 2026-05-07
    historical 1619-char remark
22. 2026-05-01
    status Active 1619-char remark
23. 2026-04-30
    listed $419,000 Active 1619-char remark
24. 2026-04-30
    historical $419,000 1619-char remark
25. 2026-04-30
    historical
26. 2025-10-28
    listed $499,000 Active
27. 2018-02-05
    soldstatus $30,000
28. 2017-11-22
    listed $34,900
29. 2017-08-28
    listed $39,900
30. 2017-08-24
    listed $39,900
31. 1997-10-14
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,115 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,226 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,111/yr (+$176/mo · 99.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$2,115
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,302
• − Management: −$4,302
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable income: $9,269
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,225
• After-tax cash flow: $12,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copake Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #841
• US rank: #16329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Copake Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,874

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.58%
• Current HPI: 441.0272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1150.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Delisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $375,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Delisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $419,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Coming Soon $419,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $499,000 Global MLS
• 2018-02-05 Sold (MLS) $30,000 HVCRMLS
• 2017-11-22 Listed $34,900 HVCRMLS
• 2017-08-28 Listed $39,900 HVCRMLS
• 2017-08-24 Listed $39,900 HVCRMLS
• 1997-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,115 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.