171 Big Circle Dr #171 · Little Canada, MN 55117

$26,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 127 Days on market

Built 2026 ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a basketball court, community events, and a playground, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 126 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $27k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $973 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $27k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 55.3% vs local median 3.5% in Little Canada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#109 in MN, #2,510 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Roseville Public School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #170 of 301 in MN (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $186 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $807 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $23,672 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 55.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 174.90%
• DSCR: 8.78
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.79×
• Total profit: $58,673
• Equity at exit: $4,011

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.97×
• Total profit: $135,366
• Equity at exit: $2,326

Cash invested: $7,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55117

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$141
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$34 /mo · $404/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $973

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $26,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,725
• Closing costs: $807
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2965 Country Dr Saint Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	576	$1,005	$1.74	17d	1	0.37mi
179 Little Canada Rd E #336 Saint Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	815	$1,475	$1.81	43d	1	0.67mi
2800 Rustic Pl Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$1,952	$1.79	1d	17	0.68mi
2835 Rice St Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–1.5	725	$1,930	$2.66	3d	14	0.73mi
396 Labore Rd Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–1.5	775	$1,562	$2.02	12d	25	0.77mi
33 County Road C E Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	960	$1,350	$1.41	43d	1	0.87mi
3500 Rice St Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$3,190	$3.50	1d	19	1.02mi
2550 Rice St Saint Paul, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1118	$1,707	$1.53	2d	76	1.17mi
165 County Road B2 E Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	727	$1,695	$2.33	4d	10	1.33mi
215 County Road B2 E Little Canada, MN	2.0	1.0	720	$1,684	$2.34	1d	32	1.40mi
210 County Road B2 E Saint Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	685	$1,338	$1.95	3d	2	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $26,900 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $26,900 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $26,900 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $26,900 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $26,400 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-02-01
   price $26,400 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a basketball court, community events, and a playground, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

7. 2026-01-28
   listed $26,900 Active 517-char remark

   Show marketing remark (517 chars)

   * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a basketball court, community events, and a playground, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,507
• − Property taxes: −$404
• − Insurance: −$1,637
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$783
• Taxable income: $12,049
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,892
• After-tax cash flow: $8,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roseville Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2732430
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,709
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3988
• State rank: #170 of 301 in MN

Livability — Little Canada

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #2510

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Little Canada, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 44,697
• Household income: $70,771
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1588.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Asian 24% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Philippines, India
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 15% Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -308.56%
• Current HPI: 267.4216
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $26,400 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Listed $26,900 Zillow