1435 Hillcrest · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$119,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1966 9,016 sqft lot $147/sqft · 44% below area Est $215k · 44% under $6/mo HOA ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come to see Canyon Lake! Great view from the 2nd floor of this home. 1Bedroom and a full bath upstairs and loads of storage area downstairs!

Key facts

• 9,016 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $75 per year; Association transfer fee $275; Community amenities: waterfront access, pool, tennis, clubhouse, park/playground, boat ramp; Subdivision: CANYON LAKE FOREST 1

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic; Co-op water
• Home design: Pre-owned property; Approximately 60 years old
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Siding exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck/Balcony; Chain link fence; Storage building / shed; Water view

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen approximately 17 x 10; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on upper level, approximately 19 x 15
• Flooring: Carpeting; Linoleum; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with 2 window units; Multiple window air conditioners (2–3+ units)
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Living/Dining room combination; Eat-in kitchen; One living area; Shop; Some window coverings remain; Additional family room on upper level
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Startzville El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 465 students, 68% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 31% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.33%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,000
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -44.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-10,355
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-7,612
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,422/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,122

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1314 Stagecoach Dr Unit 1564857P Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.0	839	$3,309	$3.94	2d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $119,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Price Change 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Price Change 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Price Change 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Price Change 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Price Change 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Price Change 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 488-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    pricestatus $119,900 Price Change 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $130,000 New 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Come to see Canyon Lake! Great view from the 2nd floor of this home. 1Bedroom and a full bath upstairs and loads of storage area downstairs!

18. 2026-04-27
    listed $130,000 Active 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Come to see Canyon Lake! Great view from the 2nd floor of this home. 1Bedroom and a full bath upstairs and loads of storage area downstairs!

19. 1986-12-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,422 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,422 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$2,422
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,327
• − Management: −$1,327
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$152
• After-tax cash flow: $2,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $119,900 LERA
• 2026-04-27 Listed $130,000 LERA
• 2026-04-27 Listed $130,000 CTXMLS
• 1986-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,422 · -12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.