14302 Fairway Dr · Eden Prairie, MN 55344

$234,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · Condo public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1973 $164/sqft · 21% below area Est $326k · 28% under $551/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $551 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-426 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (32.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.6% in Eden Prairie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#21 in MN, #575 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Eden Prairie Public School District (urban): math 61% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #13 of 301 in MN (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $162k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.

Recommended offer $159,621 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.77%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,405
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -28.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-65,542
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-93,399
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55344

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,484/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$551
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,643

Max offer price $159,621

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14315 Fairway Dr Unit 14315 Eden Prairie, MN	2.0	2.0	1256	$1,750	$1.39	44d	1	0.05mi
14247 Valley View Rd Eden Prairie, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$2,075	$2.07	2d	11	0.16mi
14301 Martin Dr Eden Prairie, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	829	$2,210	$2.66	3d	14	0.22mi
13517 Zenith Ln Unit 13517 Eden Prairie, MN	2.0	1.5	935	$2,000	$2.14	44d	1	0.46mi
13517 Zenith Ln Eden Prairie, MN	2.0	1.5	934	$2,050	$2.19	44d	1	0.47mi
13570 Technology Dr #2202 Eden Prairie, MN	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,850	$1.49	13d	1	0.73mi
15598 Garfield Cir Eden Prairie, MN	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,995	$1.87	18d	1	0.81mi
12900 Technology Dr Eden Prairie, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$3,510	$3.07	2d	8	0.98mi
14030 Chestnut Dr Eden Prairie, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,140	$2.16	3d	21	1.01mi
13905 Chestnut Dr Eden Prairie, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$2,330	$2.25	2d	29	1.10mi
14017 Chestnut Dr Eden Prairie, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	886	$1,499	$1.69	24d	3	1.11mi
16315 Wagner Way Eden Prairie, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$1,975	$2.40	3d	11	1.16mi
13588 Carmody Dr Eden Prairie, MN	2.0	1.5	1525	$2,300	$1.51	18d	1	1.29mi
6502 Kingfisher Ln Eden Prairie, MN	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1293	$2,895	$2.24	2d	5	1.36mi
8075 Eden Prairie Rd Eden Prairie, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	778	$2,605	$3.35	2d	27	1.37mi
12300 Singletree Ln Eden Prairie, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$2,449	$2.25	3d	28	1.42mi
8300 Commonwealth Dr Eden Prairie, MN	2.0	1.0–2.5	1015	$4,517	$4.45	2d	7	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $551 · $6,612/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $234,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $239,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $244,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $269,900 Active
16. 2026-05-12
    historical $269,900
17. 2026-04-20
    soldstatus $162,000
18. 1995-04-06
    soldstatus $89,000
19. 1993-02-16
    soldstatus $71,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,484 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,558 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$73/yr (+$6/mo · 2.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$2,484
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − HOA: −$6,612
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$9,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,175
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eden Prairie Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2714220
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $95,212
• Composite: 59.93/100
• National rank: #879
• State rank: #13 of 301 in MN

Livability — Eden Prairie

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eden Prairie, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 44,463
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 14,034
• Household income: $89,565
• Rent vs Own: 59.9% rent · 40.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 909.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Asian 21% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Romanian 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.33%
• Current HPI: 201.1272
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+280.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $269,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 1995-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,484 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.