389 S Parkway Dr · Clay, MI 48001

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1900 6,098 sqft lot $59/sqft · 74% below area $6/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the quiet community of Algonac where it is a boater's paradise. Build your forever home or a weekend getaway cottage. This property has an association with dock rights and a picnic area. Please see the attached documents for more info. Subject to probate approval. Please note: The existing structure on the property has been condemned by the township. The structure must be torn down in order to rebuild, according to township codes. This is a cash only property.

Key facts

• Dock rights
• Picnic area
• Boater's paradise

Tags

• BOATER'S PARADISE
• DOCK RIGHTS
• PICNIC AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Algonac Community School District (suburban): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #273 of 540 in MI (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.27%
• DSCR: 3.95
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,632
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -74.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9964 North River Rd Rd	0.21mi	1/1.0 (-1)	741 (+10%)	24mo	$200,000	$270	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $5,925
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $21,839
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48001

• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $182/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $853

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $39,900 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Welcome to the quiet community of Algonac where it is a boater's paradise. Build your forever home or a weekend getaway cottage. This property has an association with dock rights and a picnic area. Please see the attached documents for more info. Subject to probate approval. Please note: The existing structure on the property has been condemned by the township. The structure must be torn down in order to rebuild, according to township codes. This is a cash only property.

17. 2026-04-10
    listed $39,900 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Welcome to the quiet community of Algonac where it is a boater's paradise. Build your forever home or a weekend getaway cottage. This property has an association with dock rights and a picnic area. Please see the attached documents for more info. Subject to probate approval. Please note: The existing structure on the property has been condemned by the township. The structure must be torn down in order to rebuild, according to township codes. This is a cash only property.

18. 2001-04-05
    listed $79,900
19. 2000-09-29
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $182 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $398 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: +$216/yr (+$18/mo · 119.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$182
• − Insurance: −$5,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $2,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$494
• After-tax cash flow: $1,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Algonac Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2602190
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $52,085
• Composite: 30.51/100
• National rank: #6210
• State rank: #273 of 540 in MI

Livability — Clay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,502

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.86%
• Current HPI: 169.0679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-50.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-04-05 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2000-09-29 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $182 · -78.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.