4810 Mackinaw Rd · Saginaw, MI 48603

$189,900

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 251 Days on market

Built 1925 1.23 ac lot $104/sqft · 18% below area Est $233k · 18% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

Key facts

• Modern vinyl windows
• Big garage
• New roof

Tags

• 1.25 ACRE WOODED SITE
• NEW ROOF
• MODERN VINYL WINDOWS
• BIG GARAGE
• HOBBY BUILDING
• AMAZING YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw Township Community Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #265 of 540 in MI (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,589
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -18.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3830 Deibel Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,952 (+7%)	4mo	$218,000	$112	64
3280 E Wintergreen Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (-2%)	7mo	$200,000	$113	53
3855 Midnight Path	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,024 (+11%)	23mo	$250,000	$124	46
3575 Shattuck Rd	0.75mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,752 (-4%)	9mo	$180,000	$103	44
4175 Scarlet Oak Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,952 (+7%)	5mo	$226,900	$116	41
4461 Concord St	0.63mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (-5%)	15mo	$220,000	$127	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,888
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $41,177
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48603

• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,704 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,495

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $218	+0% $165	+5% $111	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $30	-5% $97	+0% $165	+5% $232	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $213	base $165	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4156 Ann St Saginaw, MI	4.0	1.5	1387	$1,225	$0.88	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

2. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

3. 2026-04-30
   price $189,900 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

4. 2026-04-29
   price $189,900 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

5. 2026-04-27
   status Active 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

6. 2026-04-27
   status Active 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

7. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

8. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

9. 2026-04-17
   status Active 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

10. 2026-04-17
    status Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

11. 2025-11-12
    historical Active Under Contract 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

12. 2025-11-12
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

13. 2025-11-12
    status Pending 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

14. 2025-11-12
    status Pending 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

15. 2025-11-07
    historical Active Under Contract 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

16. 2025-11-07
    historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

17. 2025-10-15
    price $209,900 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

18. 2025-10-15
    price $209,900 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

19. 2025-08-29
    listed $249,000 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

20. 2025-08-29
    listed $249,000 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Here's a unique opportunity. .. classic Farm Home on a 1.25 acre wooded site in Saginaw Township. New roof in 2023, modern vinyl windows, big garage + a hobby building for your collectable, hobby or home shop. Tenderly maintained by this family since 1958 and ready for your 2026 modernizations. The yard is amazing and the homes potential is unlimited.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,275 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,100 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$825/yr (+$69/mo · 64.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,635
• − Management: −$1,635
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$291
• After-tax cash flow: $2,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw Township Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2630450
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,971
• Composite: 31.01/100
• National rank: #6094
• State rank: #265 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,757
• Household income: $66,352
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1106.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.35%
• Current HPI: 152.7507
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.71%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-23.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $189,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $189,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-12 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-12 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-12 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-07 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2025-11-07 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $209,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $209,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-29 Listed $249,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $249,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,275 · -48.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.