Llano Plan · Princeton, TX 75407

$237,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily · 238 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Llano, a smartly designed new home layout that offers convenience and modern living. The owner's suite features a walk-in closet and private bath with a shower. An open kitchen connects to the gathering room, perfect for hosting or relaxing. A 2-car garage and ample storage complete the plan.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 237 days

🏗️ New construction. The $237,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $326,381.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-718 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 2157 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $194,651 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.43%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,381
• List price: $237,990
• Delta: -27.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1234 Tramore Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	2mo	$233,190	$194	79
2515 Midfield Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	6mo	$238,190	$198	79
2523 Midfield Way	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+4%)	6mo	$229,490	$184	72
1246 Tramore Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+6%)	1mo	$241,690	$189	71
1210 Tramore Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+6%)	0mo	$239,990	$188	70
1238 Tramore Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+6%)	2mo	$236,990	$186	69
1226 Tramore Way	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+6%)	2mo	$237,990	$187	69
2534 Midfield Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+6%)	6mo	$229,990	$180	67
2530 Midfield Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+10%)	5mo	$234,990	$177	60
2712 Parkside Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+11%)	1mo	$259,990	$195	47
2721 Parkside Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+11%)	3mo	$254,490	$191	45
5103 Gentle Rain Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,351 (+12%)	22mo	$309,900	$229	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-104,280
• Equity at exit: $48,665

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.88×
• Total profit: $-171,600
• Equity at exit: $28,219

Cash invested: $91,387 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.1 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $265,244 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 49 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +40.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 2157
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,712
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$408 /mo · $4,896/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,855

Max offer price $222,514

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-492	-5% $-605	+0% $-718	+5% $-831	+10% $-943
Rent	-10% $-872	-5% $-795	+0% $-718	+5% $-641	+10% $-564
Rate	-1.0pp $-553	-0.5pp $-635	base $-718	+0.5pp $-802	+1.0pp $-888

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,595
• Closing costs: $9,791
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
905 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,800	$1.25	20d	1	0.76mi
905 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,800	$1.25	45d	1	0.76mi
905 Silverbell St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,850	$1.28	114d	1	0.76mi
625 Summit Pass Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,875	$1.29	62d	1	0.77mi
403 Gallop Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,995	$1.37	0d	1	0.86mi
1217 Silent Peak Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,300	$1.58	2d	1	0.88mi
1230 Cherry Bark Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,749	$1.21	51d	1	1.00mi
1230 Cherry Bark Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,749	$1.21	39d	1	1.00mi
1230 Cherry Bark Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,699	$1.18	11d	1	1.00mi
1230 Cherry Bark Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,899	$1.32	84d	1	1.00mi
1329 Plum Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,210	$1.53	74d	1	1.09mi
1205 Catclaw Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	139d	1	1.09mi
715 Mulberry Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,695	$1.31	120d	1	1.11mi
1132 Ashwood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	70d	1	1.11mi
1132 Ashwood Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	68d	1	1.11mi
1121 Desert Willow Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,749	$1.24	20d	1	1.12mi
1121 Desert Willow Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,749	$1.24	50d	1	1.12mi
1013 Sourgum St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,795	$1.22	65d	1	1.15mi
1012 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1499	$1,800	$1.20	57d	1	1.17mi
1012 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,745	$1.16	27d	1	1.17mi
1008 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,700	$1.35	114d	1	1.17mi
1040 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,725	$1.22	139d	1	1.20mi
1005 Desert Willow Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,700	$1.18	0d	1	1.20mi
937 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,650	$1.15	18d	1	1.21mi
1024 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,710	$1.22	120d	1	1.21mi
900 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	108d	1	1.21mi
900 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1499	$1,900	$1.27	11d	1	1.21mi
1000 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,700	$1.21	139d	1	1.23mi
932 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,750	$1.39	140d	1	1.23mi
932 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,750	$1.39	45d	1	1.23mi
928 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,680	$1.19	103d	1	1.24mi
1029 Calley Pear Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,725	$1.23	139d	1	1.24mi
905 Mountain Laurel Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,885	$1.34	113d	1	1.24mi
1013 Raintree Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,699	$1.34	35d	1	1.30mi
203 Cedar Creek Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,975	$1.49	114d	1	1.32mi
203 Cedar Creek Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,875	$1.42	81d	1	1.32mi
214 Lavaca Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,700	$1.29	3d	1	1.33mi
835 Ginkgo Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,850	$1.26	139d	1	1.33mi
727 Ponderosa Ln , TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,750	$1.24	20d	1	1.41mi
713 Cedar Cove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,680	$1.23	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $237,990 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $237,990 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $237,990 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $237,990 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $237,990 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $237,990 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $237,990 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $237,990 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $237,990 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $237,990 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $237,990 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $237,990 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $237,990 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $237,990 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $237,990 Active 219 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $237,990 Active 218 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $237,990 Active 216 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $237,990 Active 214 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $237,990 Active 213 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    pricedays on market $237,990 Active 212 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $234,990 Active 211 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $234,990 Active 210 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $234,990 Active 208 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $234,990 Active 207 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $234,990 Active 206 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $234,990 Active 205 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $234,990 Active 204 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $234,990 Active 203 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $234,990 Active 202 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $234,990 Active 201 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $234,990 Active 200 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $234,990 Active 199 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $234,990 Active 198 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $234,990 Active 197 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $234,990 Active 196 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $234,990 Active 195 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $234,990 Active 194 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $234,990 Active 193 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $234,990 Active 192 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    pricedays on market $234,990 Active 191 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $235,280 Active 189 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $235,280 Active 188 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $235,280 Active 187 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $235,280 Active 186 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $234,990 Active 183 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $234,990 Active 182 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $234,990 Active 181 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $234,990 Active 180 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $234,990 Active 178 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $234,990 Active 176 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,282
• − Property taxes: −$4,896
• − Insurance: −$1,632
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$9,495
• Taxable loss: −$14,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,524
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can refresh the interior and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harper El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Clark Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Princeton H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $234,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-30 Listed $244,990 Zillow