103 Lakeview Dr · Hay, MI 48624

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 1970 9,583 sqft lot Est $238k · 42% under · waterfront ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Waterfront cottage on ALL SPORT Smallwood LAKE! Welcome to your slice of recreational paradise on the Eastern side of Gladwin County. (road access to ATV trails-no more trailering!) What does your summer day look like? Water skiing? Fishing? Trail Riding? Well, why limit yourself! This cabin has been making UP NORTH memories for years-it's time for some of your own. Property is an estate sale and includes furnishings-IMMEDIATE OCCUPANCY at closing. Smallwood Lake is a 232-acre lake and boasts some of the best fishing in Gladwin County. Smallwood Lake is a controlled waterway-Smallwood DAM is near completion, and water levels should be back up this Fall. CURRENT PICTURES are of LOW LAKE LEVE

Key facts

• Smallwood lake
• Immediate occupancy
• Waterfront cottage

Tags

• WATERFRONT COTTAGE
• SMALLWOOD LAKE
• ROAD ACCESS TO ATV TRAILS
• IMMEDIATE OCCUPANCY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inspection complete for well/septic

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage and carport; Garage dimensions approx. 19 x 19; Covered parking with 3 or more parking spaces; Listed as 1 parking space in garage
• Security: No pet restrictions noted
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; 100 Amp electric service; Electricity connected; Natural gas available; Gas water heater; Cable available; Phone available; DSL and hard line internet available (Spectrum listed); Satellite services
• Home design: Residential single-story; Built in 1970; Entry-level main floor; West side of the street (W)
• Construction: Wood construction; Slab foundation; Year built: 1970
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Patio; Porch; Storm windows / screens; Street lights nearby; On waterfront with lake frontage and water view (Smallwood Lake); All-sports lake with sandy bottom and interior lake access; Large lot (approx. 65+ ft frontage); Rural setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen — approx. 12 x 12, concrete flooring; Range / oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom (Entry level) — approx. 12 x 10, vinyl flooring; Second bedroom (Main level) — approx. 12 x 9, concrete flooring
• Flooring: Vinyl in primary bedroom; Concrete flooring in multiple rooms (kitchen, living areas, bathroom, sun room, laundry); Linoleum in family room
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main floor — approx. 8 x 5, concrete flooring
• Heating & cooling: LP / propane gas heat; Wall heat; Ceiling fan(s); Wall/window A/C units
• Interior features: Den / study / library; Living room; Eat-in kitchen; Cable / internet available; DSL available; First-floor laundry; First-floor bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on entry level — approx. 8 x 10, concrete flooring; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gladwin Community Schools (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #232 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gladwin Elementary School (379 students, 67% FRL); Gladwin Junior High School (math 33% / reading 55%, grade D, #173 of 493 statewide, top 36%, 339 students, 59% FRL); Gladwin High School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #405 of 713 statewide, top 59%, 495 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 289 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.59%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,140
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 S Elm St	0.43mi	2/1.0	900 (0%)	12mo	$140,000	$156	70
511 Rivers Ter	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (0%)	13mo	$220,000	$244	64
555 Lakeview Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (+10%)	21mo	$194,500	$196	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $13,790
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $58,683
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48624

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $955/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $649	-5% $610	+0% $571	+5% $531	+10% $492
Rent	-10% $427	-5% $499	+0% $571	+5% $642	+10% $714
Rate	-1.0pp $641	-0.5pp $606	base $571	+0.5pp $535	+1.0pp $498

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   price $139,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $144,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $144,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 10 DOM
19. 2026-05-20
    listed $144,900 Active
20. 2025-10-14
    historical
21. 2025-06-27
    price $139,900
22. 2025-04-13
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $955 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,548 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$593/yr (+$49/mo · 62.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$955
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $4,856
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,166
• After-tax cash flow: $5,682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gladwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,917
• Composite: 32.93/100
• National rank: #5595
• State rank: #232 of 540 in MI

Livability — Hay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,269

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.67%
• Current HPI: 238.0744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $144,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-13 Listed $150,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $955 · -46.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.