Afton Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$289,660

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · SingleFamily · 326 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Afton is a beautifully designed one-story new construction home, ideal for all ages. It features a welcoming foyer, open gathering room, island kitchen with a breakfast bar, and a walk-in pantry. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a spacious walk-in closet and an en-suite bath. Perfect for modern living!

Key facts

• One story
• Island kitchen
• En suite bath

Tags

• ONE STORY
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS WALK IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $289,660 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $307,834.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-459 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $211,210 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.39%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $307,834
• List price: $289,660
• Delta: -5.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Sullivan Way	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,776 (0%)	2mo	$298,748	$168	88
325 Sullivan Way	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,682 (-5%)	3mo	$279,190	$166	78
329 Sullivan Way	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (-11%)	0mo	$259,990	$165	72
109 Wilderness Trl	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,654 (-7%)	12mo	$299,999	$181	70
320 Gettysburg Loop	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-4%)	8mo	$269,900	$159	68
216 Loesch Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (-1%)	9mo	$274,995	$157	67
211 Gettysburg Loop	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+13%)	11mo	$335,000	$168	59
333 Sullivan Way	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,029 (+14%)	3mo	$316,598	$156	58
105 Wildcat Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,669 (-6%)	16mo	$269,990	$162	52
100 Stubblefield Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,559 (-12%)	8mo	$239,000	$153	48
104 Anderson Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,859 (+5%)	20mo	$247,247	$133	41
903 Lavaca Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,882 (+6%)	21mo	$299,999	$159	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $138,720
• Equity at exit: $277,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $432,071
• Equity at exit: $598,054

Cash invested: $86,194 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,112 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,618/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,693

Max offer price $241,443

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-352	+0% $-459	+5% $-565	+10% $-672
Rent	-10% $-626	-5% $-542	+0% $-459	+5% $-375	+10% $-292
Rate	-1.0pp $-304	-0.5pp $-381	base $-459	+0.5pp $-539	+1.0pp $-620

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,959
• Closing costs: $9,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	0.22mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	19d	1	0.60mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.68mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	45d	1	0.76mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	6d	1	0.81mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	6d	1	0.82mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	0.82mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	0.88mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,765	$1.14	0d	1	0.91mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	45d	1	0.96mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	0.96mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	6d	1	0.97mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	0.97mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	0d	1	1.02mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	0d	1	1.03mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	4d	1	1.05mi
209 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	5.0	3.0	2196	$2,200	$1.00	25d	1	1.06mi
19024 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,995	$0.78	45d	1	1.06mi
212 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,895	$1.13	0d	1	1.07mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	1.12mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	3d	1	1.12mi
18741 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,980	$0.78	25d	1	1.14mi
813 Central Ave Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,300	$1.14	6d	1	1.16mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	25d	1	1.20mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	1.21mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	1.21mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	1.26mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	25d	1	1.26mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	25d	1	1.28mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	45d	1	1.28mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	1.35mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	4d	1	1.36mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	25d	1	1.43mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,660 Active 326 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,660 Active 323 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,660 Active 322 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,660 Active 321 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,660 Active 320 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,660 Active 318 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,660 Active 314 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,660 Active 313 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $289,660 Active 312 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $327,990 Active 309 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $327,990 Active 308 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $327,990 Active 307 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $327,990 Active 306 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $327,990 Active 305 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    price $327,990 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    The Afton is a beautifully designed one-story new construction home, ideal for all ages. It features a welcoming foyer, open gathering room, island kitchen with a breakfast bar, and a walk-in pantry. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a spacious walk-in closet and an en-suite bath. Perfect for modern living!

16. 2026-03-10
    price $298,748 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    The Afton is a beautifully designed one-story new construction home, ideal for all ages. It features a welcoming foyer, open gathering room, island kitchen with a breakfast bar, and a walk-in pantry. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a spacious walk-in closet and an en-suite bath. Perfect for modern living!

17. 2026-01-05
    price $305,423 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    The Afton is a beautifully designed one-story new construction home, ideal for all ages. It features a welcoming foyer, open gathering room, island kitchen with a breakfast bar, and a walk-in pantry. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a spacious walk-in closet and an en-suite bath. Perfect for modern living!

18. 2025-12-04
    price $309,990 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    The Afton is a beautifully designed one-story new construction home, ideal for all ages. It features a welcoming foyer, open gathering room, island kitchen with a breakfast bar, and a walk-in pantry. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a spacious walk-in closet and an en-suite bath. Perfect for modern living!

19. 2025-11-02
    price $314,871 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    The Afton is a beautifully designed one-story new construction home, ideal for all ages. It features a welcoming foyer, open gathering room, island kitchen with a breakfast bar, and a walk-in pantry. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a spacious walk-in closet and an en-suite bath. Perfect for modern living!

20. 2025-11-01
    price $314,870 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    The Afton is a beautifully designed one-story new construction home, ideal for all ages. It features a welcoming foyer, open gathering room, island kitchen with a breakfast bar, and a walk-in pantry. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a spacious walk-in closet and an en-suite bath. Perfect for modern living!

21. 2025-07-31
    listed $327,990 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    The Afton is a beautifully designed one-story new construction home, ideal for all ages. It features a welcoming foyer, open gathering room, island kitchen with a breakfast bar, and a walk-in pantry. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a spacious walk-in closet and an en-suite bath. Perfect for modern living!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,618
• − Insurance: −$1,539
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − Depreciation: −$8,955
• Taxable loss: −$11,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,656
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $327,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $298,748 Zillow
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $305,423 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $314,871 Zillow
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $314,870 Zillow
• 2025-07-31 Listed $327,990 Zillow