Plan 1511 Modeled Plan · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$295,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · SingleFamily · 216 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Back patio accessible from great room * Extended dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Tile flooring at entry, kitchen, baths and laundry room * Split-bedroom layout * Kitchen breakfast bar * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious laundry room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Near popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby * Oversized homesites

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Split-bedroom layout
• Kitchen island

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR
• KITCHEN USB CHARGING PORT
• SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Zephyrhills, FL 33541; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $295,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan (Plan 1511 Modeled)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1511

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open plan living area

🏗️ New construction. The $295,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $327,887.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,614/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,471 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,887
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34698 Blossom Fall Path	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+7%)	1mo	$349,990	$217	66
9178 Shadow Valley Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+7%)	1mo	$345,990	$214	65
34712 Blossom Fall Path	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+7%)	2mo	$329,990	$204	65
34706 Blossom Fall Path	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+7%)	3mo	$359,990	$223	64
9070 Citrus Grove Way	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,692 (+12%)	0mo	$349,990	$207	55
34215 Kiefer Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,731 (+15%)	9mo	$525,000	$303	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-73,561
• Equity at exit: $48,889

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-109,990
• Equity at exit: $28,350

Cash invested: $91,808 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,719
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,918/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,868

Max offer price $298,787

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,972
• Closing costs: $9,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34436 Moonflower Ave Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2039	$2,600	$1.28	24d	1	1.28mi
34338 Wynthorne Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	2192	$3,200	$1.46	4d	1	1.42mi
7563 Ashcroft Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.5	2082	$2,490	$1.20	13d	1	1.45mi
7891 Stonebrook Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1587	$2,250	$1.42	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,990 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,990 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,990 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,990 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,990 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,990 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,990 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $295,990 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $295,990 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,990 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,990 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,990 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,990 Active 198 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,367
• − Property taxes: −$4,918
• − Insurance: −$1,639
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,509
• − Management: −$2,509
• − Depreciation: −$9,539
• Taxable loss: −$8,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,948
• After-tax cash flow: $-465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B