539A Warwick Ct · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Condo public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1977 $402/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home that only needs your personal touches. 2 Bedroom, 2 full baths, Central Air, nice location with back of home on end of a cul-de-sac. Neutral carpet throughout. Eat in kitchen, formal dining room and living room. An adorable bright sitting room that has doors leading out to a private patio. Come take a look you ll just love this home with such an attractive price.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Bocce courts

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• BOCCE COURTS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association amenities include exercise room, pool, clubhouse, common area, and bocci; Association fee covers common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership; Attached to neighboring units
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.8% in Leisure Village West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.32%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-10,318
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $20,371
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,772 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,767/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$402
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,339

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $455	-5% $398	+0% $342	+5% $285	+10% $228
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $232	+0% $342	+5% $451	+10% $561
Rate	-1.0pp $442	-0.5pp $393	base $342	+0.5pp $290	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	44d	1	0.62mi
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	44d	1	0.71mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	23d	1	1.00mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	0d	6	1.13mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	0d	1	1.15mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	1.30mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	44d	1	1.35mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	44d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $402 · $4,824/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-05-22
    listed $200,000 Active
11. 2007-03-30
    soldstatus $165,500
12. 2007-03-28
    soldstatus $161,500 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Beautiful home that only needs your personal touches. 2 Bedroom, 2 full baths, Central Air, nice location with back of home on end of a cul-de-sac. Neutral carpet throughout. Eat in kitchen, formal dining room and living room. An adorable bright sitting room that has doors leading out to a private patio. Come take a look you ll just love this home with such an attractive price.

13. 2007-01-22
    listed $169,000 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Beautiful home that only needs your personal touches. 2 Bedroom, 2 full baths, Central Air, nice location with back of home on end of a cul-de-sac. Neutral carpet throughout. Eat in kitchen, formal dining room and living room. An adorable bright sitting room that has doors leading out to a private patio. Come take a look you ll just love this home with such an attractive price.

14. 1986-01-27
    soldstatus $98,000
15. 1978-03-14
    soldstatus $44,990
16. 1978-03-01
    soldstatus $49,490

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,767 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,374 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$51/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,767
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,661
• − Management: −$2,661
• − HOA: −$4,824
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$319
• After-tax cash flow: $3,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+304.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $200,000 MOMLS
• 2007-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $165,500 Public Records
• 2007-03-28 Sold (MLS) $161,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-01-22 Listed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1986-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 1978-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $44,990 Public Records
• 1978-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,490 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,767 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.