39084 Craddock Ln · Pearl River, LA 70452

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Built 2009

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Built 2009
• Listed 158 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.9% in Pearl River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#419 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $100k implies a 469% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.48%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-6,523
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $6,727
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70452

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,492/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $185	+0% $150	+5% $116	+10% $82
Rent	-10% $67	-5% $109	+0% $150	+5% $192	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $176	base $150	+0.5pp $125	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,500 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-01-10
    listed $99,500 Active
15. 2026-01-10
    listed $99,500 Active
16. 2020-11-05
    soldstatus $17,500 Closed
17. 2019-05-16
    price $23,000
18. 2017-05-25
    listed $29,900 Active
19. 2017-05-17
    listed $23,000
20. 2003-11-03
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,492
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,018
• − Management: −$1,018
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$57
• After-tax cash flow: $1,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Pearl River

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #25262

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pearl River, LA
• Population (ZIP): 13,290

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.29%
• Current HPI: 156.9714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+352.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-10 Listed $99,500 GSREIN
• 2026-01-10 Listed $99,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2020-11-05 Sold (MLS) $17,500 GSREIN
• 2019-05-16 Price Changed $23,000 GSREIN
• 2017-05-25 Listed $29,900 GSREIN
• 2017-05-17 Listed $23,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2003-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-16.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $19 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.