162 Heritage Forest Pkwy · Dripping Springs, TX 78620

$379,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,950 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $195/sqft · 13% below area Est $437k · 13% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Explore the comfort and modern style of this thoughtfully designed new residence at 162 Heritage Forest Parkway in Dripping Springs, TX. This two-story home offers a functional layout that balances open social areas on the first floor with quiet private space on the second level. Key Features: • 3 spacious bedrooms, featuring an owner's suite situated on the second floor for maximum privacy • 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 1,950 square feet of interior space distributed across two levels • Airy main-floor hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction featuring expert craftsmanship and modern energy standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in the desirable Heritage Forest community with a welcoming atmosphere • Excellent proximity to beautiful local parks and recreational opportunities in Dripping Springs • A premier location that balances a peaceful residential retreat with access to city favorites The heart of the home is the wide-open gathering area on the main floor, where the kitchen and family room flow together for a comfortable, spacious feel. While the first floor is dedicated to active living and entertaining, the second story provides a private floor for the owner's suite and additional bedrooms. This multi-level configuration is ideal for keeping the sleeping quarters separate from the social a. .. MLS# 9906979

Key facts

• Central island
• Private bath
• Open concept layout

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• LUXURIOUS OWNERS SUITE
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Heritage) with annual fee; Annual association fee covers grounds maintenance; Community features include common grounds, community mailbox, dog park, playground, park, street lights, sidewalks, trails/paths, internet access, pool, suburban setting

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front with automatic door opener; Two covered garage spaces; Concrete driveway; Total parking for four vehicles
• Security: Pre-wired security; Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Electricity available; Cable available; High speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Two-story single family residence; New construction by M/I Homes; Northeast-facing; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition/shingle roof; Brick, stone, cement siding with HardiPlank; Blown-in insulation; Built by M/I Homes
• Exterior features: Private fenced backyard with wood privacy gate; Rear covered porch; Front covered porch; No exterior steps; In-wall pest control system; Exterior lighting; Landscaped yard; Automatic sprinklers (front, rear, side) with rain sensor; Small trees; Community pool; Views; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Self-cleaning oven; Gas range; Gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Stainless steel appliances; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Exhaust/vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with walk-in closet on second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Double vanity(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Zoned heating; ENERGY STAR qualified heating equipment; Central air conditioning; Dual/electric cooling; Zoned cooling; ENERGY STAR qualified cooling equipment
• Interior features: Open floorplan; High ceilings; Recessed lighting; Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Soaking tub; Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Wired for data; Wired for sound; Smart thermostat; High speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper level; In-hall laundry; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-412 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.1% in Dripping Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#149 in TX, #4,158 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dripping Springs ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Springs El (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 887 students, 13% FRL); Dripping Springs Middle (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C+, #293 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 882 students, 0% FRL); Dripping Springs H S (math 45% / reading 76%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 2,433 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 765 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,616 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.64%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $436,513
• List price: $379,990
• Delta: -12.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
139 Great Sequoia Ln	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,951 (+0%)	2mo	$424,241	$217	93
134 Big Banyan Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,950 (0%)	2mo	$434,990	$223	84
342 Heritage Forest Pkwy	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,002 (+3%)	2mo	$499,136	$249	84
1107 Lucca Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,955 (+0%)	2mo	$485,000	$248	84
565 Darley Oak Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,903 (-2%)	2mo	$439,990	$231	81
578 Darley Oak Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,963 (+1%)	1mo	$429,990	$219	80
394 Bishop Wood Rd	0.24mi	3/2.5	2,175 (+12%)	2mo	$493,990	$227	68
288 Bishop Wood Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,739 (-11%)	2mo	$434,990	$250	67
177 Grayson Elm Pass	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,718 (-12%)	0mo	$409,990	$239	63
226 Grayson Elm Pass	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,718 (-12%)	2mo	$399,990	$233	62
221 Hilltop Dr	0.70mi	3/3.0	2,134 (+9%)	0mo	$460,000	$216	49
126 Buckthorn Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,153 (+10%)	1mo	$359,900	$167	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-91,146
• Equity at exit: $56,658

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-126,535
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78620

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 765
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,700/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,387

Max offer price $320,408

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-149	-5% $-280	+0% $-412	+5% $-543	+10% $-674
Rent	-10% $-638	-5% $-525	+0% $-412	+5% $-299	+10% $-185
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-315	base $-412	+0.5pp $-510	+1.0pp $-610

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,998
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
468 Milkwood Ter Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1483	$2,450	$1.65	45d	1	0.10mi
134 Big Banyan Dr Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$3,000	$1.54	45d	1	0.23mi
358 Darley Oak Dr Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	3.0	2543	$3,250	$1.28	19d	1	0.26mi
394 Bishop Wood Rd Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2182	$3,200	$1.47	25d	1	0.27mi
435 Hays St Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$5,250	$2.69	45d	1	0.68mi
115 Iron Rail Rd Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1896	$2,250	$1.19	45d	1	0.70mi
253 Spanish Star Trl Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,200	$1.33	25d	1	0.73mi
106 Buckthorn Dr Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2258	$2,450	$1.09	6d	1	0.74mi
210 Dome Peak Ter Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,700	$1.64	45d	1	0.89mi
787 Lone Peak Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2319	$2,450	$1.06	45d	1	0.97mi
856 Lone Peak Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1948	$2,550	$1.31	14d	1	1.05mi
319 Pecos River Xing Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2155	$3,500	$1.62	19d	1	1.08mi
779 Founders Rdg Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2123	$3,300	$1.55	4d	1	1.10mi
218 Glass Mountain Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2213	$2,500	$1.13	25d	1	1.11mi
218 Glass Mountain Way Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	2213	$2,500	$1.13	45d	1	1.11mi
500 Harmon Hills Cv Unit B Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,500	$1.71	45d	1	1.26mi
1282 S Rob Shelton Blvd Dripping Springs, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$2,756	$2.80	0d	47	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,990 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,990 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,990 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,990 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,990 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,990 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,990 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $379,990 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $387,990 Active 41 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1485 chars)

   Explore the comfort and modern style of this thoughtfully designed new residence at 162 Heritage Forest Parkway in Dripping Springs, TX. This two-story home offers a functional layout that balances open social areas on the first floor with quiet private space on the second level. Key Features: • 3 spacious bedrooms, featuring an owner's suite situated on the second floor for maximum privacy • 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 1,950 square feet of interior space distributed across two levels • Airy main-floor hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction featuring expert craftsmanship and modern energy standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in the desirable Heritage Forest community with a welcoming atmosphere • Excellent proximity to beautiful local parks and recreational opportunities in Dripping Springs • A premier location that balances a peaceful residential retreat with access to city favorites The heart of the home is the wide-open gathering area on the main floor, where the kitchen and family room flow together for a comfortable, spacious feel. While the first floor is dedicated to active living and entertaining, the second story provides a private floor for the owner's suite and additional bedrooms. This multi-level configuration is ideal for keeping the sleeping quarters separate from the social a. .. MLS# 9906979

10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $387,990 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $387,990 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $387,990 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $387,990 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $387,990 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $387,990 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $387,990 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $394,990 Active 1376-char remark
18. 2026-04-21
    price $394,990 1485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1485 chars)

    Explore the comfort and modern style of this thoughtfully designed new residence at 162 Heritage Forest Parkway in Dripping Springs, TX. This two-story home offers a functional layout that balances open social areas on the first floor with quiet private space on the second level. Key Features: • 3 spacious bedrooms, featuring an owner's suite situated on the second floor for maximum privacy • 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 1,950 square feet of interior space distributed across two levels • Airy main-floor hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction featuring expert craftsmanship and modern energy standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in the desirable Heritage Forest community with a welcoming atmosphere • Excellent proximity to beautiful local parks and recreational opportunities in Dripping Springs • A premier location that balances a peaceful residential retreat with access to city favorites The heart of the home is the wide-open gathering area on the main floor, where the kitchen and family room flow together for a comfortable, spacious feel. While the first floor is dedicated to active living and entertaining, the second story provides a private floor for the owner's suite and additional bedrooms. This multi-level configuration is ideal for keeping the sleeping quarters separate from the social a. .. MLS# 9906979

19. 2026-03-11
    listed $419,990 Active 1485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1485 chars)

    Explore the comfort and modern style of this thoughtfully designed new residence at 162 Heritage Forest Parkway in Dripping Springs, TX. This two-story home offers a functional layout that balances open social areas on the first floor with quiet private space on the second level. Key Features: • 3 spacious bedrooms, featuring an owner's suite situated on the second floor for maximum privacy • 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom finished with modern fixtures • 1,950 square feet of interior space distributed across two levels • Airy main-floor hub that joins the kitchen and family room for a connected feel • Brand-new construction featuring expert craftsmanship and modern energy standards Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in the desirable Heritage Forest community with a welcoming atmosphere • Excellent proximity to beautiful local parks and recreational opportunities in Dripping Springs • A premier location that balances a peaceful residential retreat with access to city favorites The heart of the home is the wide-open gathering area on the main floor, where the kitchen and family room flow together for a comfortable, spacious feel. While the first floor is dedicated to active living and entertaining, the second story provides a private floor for the owner's suite and additional bedrooms. This multi-level configuration is ideal for keeping the sleeping quarters separate from the social a. .. MLS# 9906979

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,285
• − Property taxes: −$5,700
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,752
• − Management: −$2,752
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$11,054
• Taxable loss: −$11,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,796
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dripping Springs ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800008
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $103,367
• Composite: 54.5/100
• National rank: #1347
• State rank: #41 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dripping Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #4158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dripping Springs, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 22,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,860
• Household income: $153,477
• Rent vs Own: 14.1% rent · 85.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.51%
• Current HPI: 308.2387
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $379,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $379,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-23 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $387,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $387,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $394,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $394,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Listed $419,990 Zillow