612 Manchester · Merkel, TX 79536

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,211 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1932 7,013 sqft lot $66/sqft · 48% below area Est $154k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Owner Agent- Sold AS IS- Will owner carry w 20% down- was tenant occupied however now needs to be redone. Lots of room and would make a great flip project or redo for great place to live. Close to Schools. Hardwood floors, lots of windows, large front porch, rear entry carport and extra parking.

Key facts

• Extra parking
• Close to schools
• Large front porch

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• REAR ENTRY CARPORT
• EXTRA PARKING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential single-family; Subdivision: Johnson-Merkel; County: Taylor; Municipal utility district: No; Possession: Negotiable
• Financial info: Selling terms include cash, conventional, or owner will carry
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Covered parking; Driveway; Alley access; Additional parking; One carport space; One covered parking space
• Security: Smoke detectors installed
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Underground utilities; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Detached (not attached to other properties); Deed restrictions
• Construction: Built in 1932; Frame construction; Asphalt roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Cleared, level corner lot with few trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Five total rooms; One living area
• Laundry & utility: Individual gas meter

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $79,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$154,493) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.3% in Merkel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#517 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Merkel ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #460 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Merkel El (math 53% / reading 44%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 565 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.10%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,493
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -48.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 Yucca	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,189 (-2%)	21mo	$150,000	$126	67
1002 S 6th	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,289 (+6%)	2mo	$205,000	$159	66
1112 S 10th	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-3%)	16mo	$185,000	$157	62
702 Avondale	0.30mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,325 (+9%)	6mo	$170,000	$128	60
1309 N 4th	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+0%)	8mo	$115,000	$95	57
4 Palmer	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,084 (-10%)	17mo	$140,000	$129	51
103 Orange	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,263 (+4%)	8mo	$95,000	$75	50
1027 Avondale	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+14%)	5mo	$215,000	$156	50
409 Ash	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,094 (-10%)	23mo	$110,000	$101	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $12,102
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $42,796
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79536

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $664

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $439	-5% $416	+0% $393	+5% $371	+10% $348
Rent	-10% $301	-5% $347	+0% $393	+5% $439	+10% $485
Rate	-1.0pp $434	-0.5pp $414	base $393	+0.5pp $373	+1.0pp $352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 Cherry Merkel, TX	2.0	1.0	1164	$1,095	$0.94	22d	1	0.54mi
306 El Paso Merkel, TX	3.0	1.0	920	$1,200	$1.30	14d	1	0.69mi
405 Thornton Merkel, TX	3.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	22d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $79,900 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,900 Active Option Contract 26 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $79,900 Active Option Contract 25 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   historical Active Option Contract 296-char remark
5. 2026-05-05
   listed $79,900 Active 296-char remark
6. 2026-04-30
   historical
7. 2026-02-09
   listed $79,900 Active
8. 2024-03-17
   historical
9. 1994-10-06
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $870 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$592/yr (+$49/mo · 68.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,116
• − Management: −$1,116
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$875
• After-tax cash flow: $3,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merkel ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830340
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,594
• Composite: 32.22/100
• National rank: #5774
• State rank: #460 of 826 in TX

Livability — Merkel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #517
• US rank: #10181

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merkel, TX
• City population: 6,080
• Population (ZIP): 6,080

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.40%
• Current HPI: 203.6833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $79,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $79,900 NTREIS
• 2024-03-17 Rental Removed — NTREIS
• 1994-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $870 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.