2954 Cardinals Ln · Chester, IL 62233

$94,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 1993 2.00 ac lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on 2 acres - surrounded by woods - you will love the privacy & the view - With 2 sunrooms and 2 fireplaces that make this home such a cozy place to come home to!! Seller will be removing the free standing cabinets in the kitchen/dining area and will be taking some of the hostas.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Add on rooms
• Rural water

Tags

• TWO ACRES
• ADD ON ROOMS
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• DETACHED GARAGE
• CONCRETE BLOCK BUILDING
• RURAL WATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2-car garage (approx. 28 x 24)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Single-phase electric
• Home design: Manufactured home (single-level); Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Adjoins wooded area; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (17 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level; Bedroom sizes: 12 x 12; 10 x 10; 12 x 10
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level; Bathroom example size: 6 x 4
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room (25 x 12); Den (12 x 15); Family room (19 x 9); Fireplace in the den; Total of 10 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utilities: electricity connected, water available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#770 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Chester CUSD 139 (town): math 12% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #393 of 620 in IL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chester High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #567 of 693 statewide, top 83%, 323 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chester CUSD 139 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.77%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $4,740
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $30,059
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62233

• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,155/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $869

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-23
   historical
2. 2026-04-16
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-03
   status Active
4. 2026-02-08
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2026-01-13
   listed Active
6. 2026-01-13
   listed $94,500 Active
7. 2008-05-30
   soldstatus 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Set on 2 acres - surrounded by woods - you will love the privacy & the view - With 2 sunrooms and 2 fireplaces that make this home such a cozy place to come home to!! Seller will be removing the free standing cabinets in the kitchen/dining area and will be taking some of the hostas.

8. 2008-05-30
   soldstatus 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Set on 2 acres - surrounded by woods - you will love the privacy & the view - With 2 sunrooms and 2 fireplaces that make this home such a cozy place to come home to!! Seller will be removing the free standing cabinets in the kitchen/dining area and will be taking some of the hostas.

9. 2008-05-30
   soldstatus $115,000

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Set on 2 acres - surrounded by woods - you will love the privacy & the view - With 2 sunrooms and 2 fireplaces that make this home such a cozy place to come home to!! Seller will be removing the free standing cabinets in the kitchen/dining area and will be taking some of the hostas.

10. 2008-03-05
    listed $115,000 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Set on 2 acres - surrounded by woods - you will love the privacy & the view - With 2 sunrooms and 2 fireplaces that make this home such a cozy place to come home to!! Seller will be removing the free standing cabinets in the kitchen/dining area and will be taking some of the hostas.

11. 2008-03-05
    listed $115,000 287-char remark

    Show marketing remark (287 chars)

    Set on 2 acres - surrounded by woods - you will love the privacy & the view - With 2 sunrooms and 2 fireplaces that make this home such a cozy place to come home to!! Seller will be removing the free standing cabinets in the kitchen/dining area and will be taking some of the hostas.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,155 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,650 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$495/yr (+$41/mo · 42.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$1,155
• − Insurance: −$1,139
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $2,435
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$584
• After-tax cash flow: $3,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chester CUSD 139
• NCES district ID: 1709810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,390
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8807
• State rank: #393 of 620 in IL

Livability — Chester

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #770
• US rank: #15436

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,233

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,417 people
• By 2030: 30,519 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 28,841 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 27,150 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 22,569 · -28.2%
• By 2100: 16,584 · -47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.0) · D 24.1% · R 74.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -49.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.9pp · 2024: -50.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.0 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+46.8 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.79%
• Current HPI: 119.2269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-08 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $94,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2008-05-30 Sold (MLS) — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-30 Sold (MLS) — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-05 Listed $115,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-05 Listed $115,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,155 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.