4216 Balsa St · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$305,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2020 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You must take a look at this BEAUTIFUL BRAND Energy Star & Energy Smart home!! The open concept, split floor plan offers so much. A stunning kitchen with an oversized island that any chef would love! All NEW Frigidaire appliance, and a spacious pantry. 4 bedrooms with walk in closets. 2 living areas with distinctive coffered ceiling and crown molding. The master Suite has a gorgeous bathroom with an over sized shower. A convenient utility room. Exterior amenities include xeriscape landscaping in front with trees & bushes on bubblers, a storage shed, cinder-block fence and fully landscaped yard in the back! You'll love the covered porch! Make an appointment to see this home today!

Key facts

• Permanent foundation
• Bar-top seating
• Convenient pantry

Tags

• PERMANENT FOUNDATION
• CORNER LOT
• LARGE OPEN KITCHEN
• BAR-TOP SEATING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CONVENIENT PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is irregular with rear sprinklers; Lot area approximately 0.19 acres
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: HOA information not provided

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured house (double wide); One story
• Construction: Shingle roof; Construction material details not provided; Foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Block fencing enclosing yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms info not provided
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling; Forced air heating; Electric heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,344 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-54,972
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-55,290
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,955/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,392

Max offer price $289,886

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
506 Southern Sky St Carlsbad, NM	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,500	$1.67	43d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $305,000 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   price $305,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $310,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $310,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $310,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $310,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $310,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-05-05
    listed $310,000 Active 1183-char remark
13. 2022-01-27
    soldstatus 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    You must take a look at this BEAUTIFUL BRAND Energy Star & Energy Smart home!! The open concept, split floor plan offers so much. A stunning kitchen with an oversized island that any chef would love! All NEW Frigidaire appliance, and a spacious pantry. 4 bedrooms with walk in closets. 2 living areas with distinctive coffered ceiling and crown molding. The master Suite has a gorgeous bathroom with an over sized shower. A convenient utility room. Exterior amenities include xeriscape landscaping in front with trees & bushes on bubblers, a storage shed, cinder-block fence and fully landscaped yard in the back! You'll love the covered porch! Make an appointment to see this home today!

14. 2021-10-08
    listed $293,900 701-char remark

    Show marketing remark (701 chars)

    You must take a look at this BEAUTIFUL BRAND Energy Star & Energy Smart home!! The open concept, split floor plan offers so much. A stunning kitchen with an oversized island that any chef would love! All NEW Frigidaire appliance, and a spacious pantry. 4 bedrooms with walk in closets. 2 living areas with distinctive coffered ceiling and crown molding. The master Suite has a gorgeous bathroom with an over sized shower. A convenient utility room. Exterior amenities include xeriscape landscaping in front with trees & bushes on bubblers, a storage shed, cinder-block fence and fully landscaped yard in the back! You'll love the covered porch! Make an appointment to see this home today!

15. 2019-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,955 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,440 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$485/yr (+$40/mo · 24.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$1,955
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,192
• − Management: −$2,192
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$6,421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+3.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $305,000 NMMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $310,000 NMMLS
• 2022-01-27 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2021-10-08 Listed $293,900 NMMLS
• 2019-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+100.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,955 · +28.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.