21751 Locust St · California City, CA 93505

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Manufactured public records · 247 Days on market

Built 2004 3,920 sqft lot $101/sqft · 9% above area Est $138k · 9% over $74/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful manufactured home on its own land, nestled in a friendly and secure community! Enjoy peace of mind with fencing all around for privacy, and a warm neighborhood atmosphere perfect for families, first-time buyers, or anyone seeking comfort and space. This home offers the perfect blend of country-style living with modern convenience — plenty of outdoor room to garden, entertain, or simply relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.2% in California City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.17%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,000
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 8.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6897 Rea Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-3%)	13mo	$112,000	$78	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $104,335
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.22×
• Total profit: $302,999
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,134/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6833 Rea Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,395	$0.92	23d	1	0.11mi
21801 69th St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,700	$1.26	23d	1	0.15mi
21811 69th St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,700	$1.39	23d	1	0.16mi
7113 Victor Pl Unit B California City, CA	3.0	2.5	1240	$1,600	$1.29	23d	1	0.63mi
6761 California City Blvd California City, CA	4.0	2.5	1770	$2,500	$1.41	23d	1	0.75mi
7317 California City Blvd California City, CA	3.0	1.5	1228	$1,725	$1.40	19d	1	0.92mi
7733 Walpole Ave Unit A California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	23d	1	1.10mi
7343 Dogwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,250	$1.73	23d	1	1.12mi
7617 California City Blvd Apt B California City, CA	2.0	1.0	894	$1,225	$1.37	3d	1	1.12mi
21001 Berry St Unit 5 California City, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,150	$1.29	23d	1	1.14mi
7819 Walpole Ave California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	23d	1	1.16mi
21032 79th St California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1228	$2,100	$1.71	23d	1	1.34mi
8307 Charles Pl California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,750	$1.17	14d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 241 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 238 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 237 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 236 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 232 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 231 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 230 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 229 DOM
16. 2025-09-14
    listed $149,900 Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful manufactured home on its own land, nestled in a friendly and secure community! Enjoy peace of mind with fencing all around for privacy, and a warm neighborhood atmosphere perfect for families, first-time buyers, or anyone seeking comfort and space. This home offers the perfect blend of country-style living with modern convenience — plenty of outdoor room to garden, entertain, or simply relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings.

17. 2022-08-30
    soldstatus $155,000 Sold 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Check out this beautiful home in Desert Hacienda Community! This home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, indoor laundry, and a formal living room plus separate family room. Enjoy the new carpet, new flooring in guest bathroom, and freshly coated paint. The community has a low HOA and includes community pool and gym. Make an appointment to see this beauty today!

18. 2022-08-30
    soldstatus $155,000

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Check out this beautiful home in Desert Hacienda Community! This home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, indoor laundry, and a formal living room plus separate family room. Enjoy the new carpet, new flooring in guest bathroom, and freshly coated paint. The community has a low HOA and includes community pool and gym. Make an appointment to see this beauty today!

19. 2022-08-09
    status Pending 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Check out this beautiful home in Desert Hacienda Community! This home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, indoor laundry, and a formal living room plus separate family room. Enjoy the new carpet, new flooring in guest bathroom, and freshly coated paint. The community has a low HOA and includes community pool and gym. Make an appointment to see this beauty today!

20. 2022-07-18
    historical Active - Contingent 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Check out this beautiful home in Desert Hacienda Community! This home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, indoor laundry, and a formal living room plus separate family room. Enjoy the new carpet, new flooring in guest bathroom, and freshly coated paint. The community has a low HOA and includes community pool and gym. Make an appointment to see this beauty today!

21. 2022-06-20
    listed $164,900 Active 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Check out this beautiful home in Desert Hacienda Community! This home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, indoor laundry, and a formal living room plus separate family room. Enjoy the new carpet, new flooring in guest bathroom, and freshly coated paint. The community has a low HOA and includes community pool and gym. Make an appointment to see this beauty today!

22. 2022-02-25
    soldstatus $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,134 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,134 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,134
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $1,157
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$278
• After-tax cash flow: $3,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+202.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-14 Listed $149,900 AVMLS
• 2022-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-30 Sold (MLS) $155,000 GEMLS
• 2022-08-09 Pending — GEMLS
• 2022-07-18 Contingent — GEMLS
• 2022-06-20 Listed $164,900 GEMLS
• 2022-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,134 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.