14613 Sage Bloom Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$311,740

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,121 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 5,174 sqft lot Est $320k · at est. $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

From the covered porch, you enter into the foyer, where stairs to the second floor are immediately in view. Continuing through, you arrive at the open family room, dining area, and kitchen. A powder bath is conveniently located off the kitchen and family room. Also off the kitchen are a pantry, a coat closet, and access to the two-car garage. Upstairs, a central loft leads to the primary bedroom, which includes a primary bath and a spacious walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms—each with its own walk-in closet—share a full bath. A laundry room is also located on the second floor for added convenience.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Pantry
• Kitchen

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN FAMILY ROOM
• DINING AREA
• KITCHEN
• POWDER BATH
• PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA (Eagles Landing Residential Community HOA) with a $35 monthly fee covering common area maintenance; Community amenities include common grounds, community mailbox, curbs, dog park, playground, park, street lights, sidewalks, and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front; Driveway parking; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities
• Home design: 2-story new construction; Built by Starlight Homes; South-facing; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank and masonry exterior; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Back yard; Front yard; Automatic in-ground sprinklers (front and rear); Fenced yard with privacy wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Dining area; Kitchen/family room combo; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Icemaker; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Upper bedroom(s) with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Entrance foyer; Recessed lighting; Interior steps; Main level primary; Pantry; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Upper level laundry room with washer and dryer hookups (electric dryer hookup); Washer included; Dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $312k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-485 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $215,779 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.66%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,271
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18209 Harpy Ct	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	7mo	$339,490	$160	92
18304 Speculator Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,213 (+4%)	2mo	$274,999	$124	83
14501 Bonellis Pass	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,258 (+6%)	4mo	$299,625	$133	78
18300 Stellers Sea St	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,924 (-9%)	2mo	$289,900	$151	77
18204 Papuan Cv	0.05mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-10%)	3mo	$278,541	$146	77
18205 Harpy Ct	0.03mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-10%)	8mo	$327,990	$172	74
18236 Stellers Sea St	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,924 (-9%)	7mo	$313,900	$163	74
14617 Bonellis Pass	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,338 (+10%)	6mo	$325,291	$139	73
14621 Bonellis Pass	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,338 (+10%)	7mo	$320,575	$137	73
18216 Papuan Cv	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-14%)	5mo	$281,985	$154	65
14525 Bonellis Pass	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-14%)	6mo	$276,451	$151	62
216 Lavender Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,997 (-6%)	7mo	$301,640	$151	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $139,225
• Equity at exit: $280,840

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $434,912
• Equity at exit: $605,642

Cash invested: $87,287 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,635
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$390 /mo · $4,676/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,771

Max offer price $241,602

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,935
• Closing costs: $9,352
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.07mi
17001 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,945	$0.77	20d	1	0.19mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	44d	1	0.20mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	24d	1	0.20mi
18501 Spotted Eagle Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	3.5	2891	$2,800	$0.97	3d	1	0.23mi
17041 Dusty Boots Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,370	$0.93	3d	1	0.28mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	44d	1	0.29mi
16429 Farmhouse Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$2,000	$0.79	3d	1	0.36mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	44d	1	0.37mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	24d	1	0.37mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	24d	1	0.40mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.42mi
18741 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,980	$0.78	24d	1	0.45mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.46mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	24d	1	0.46mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	18d	1	0.48mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.50mi
19024 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	5.0	2.5	2542	$1,995	$0.78	44d	1	0.53mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	2d	1	0.53mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	2d	1	0.54mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,452	$1.38	2d	1	0.63mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	0.66mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	20d	1	0.69mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	4d	1	0.79mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	2d	1	0.81mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	44d	1	0.85mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	4d	1	0.87mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	44d	1	0.98mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	44d	1	1.11mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	1.13mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	44d	1	1.26mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	18d	1	1.29mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $311,740 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $311,740 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $311,740 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-05-16
   listed $311,740 Active 612-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,462
• − Property taxes: −$4,676
• − Insurance: −$1,559
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$9,069
• Taxable loss: −$11,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,744
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $311,740 Unlock MLS