209 Skylark Cir #209 · Lafayette, CO 80026

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 179 Days on market

Built 1998 ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover exceptional value and comfort in this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the highly sought-after Skylark Community of Lafayette, just a few blocks from historic downtown with its vibrant shopping, dining, and breweries. This spacious 1,152 sq ft home features a freshly painted exterior, a large covered porch that extends across the front and along one side, and a small backyard shed for extra storage. Inside, you'll love the expansive kitchen with abundant room for cooking and dining, plus all-included appliances-refrigerator, washer, dryer, and a brand-new stove. Major updates bring peace of mind, including a roof replacement in 2020 and a new water heater. The prima

Key facts

• Large covered porch
• Expansive kitchen
• New water heater

Tags

• LARGE COVERED PORCH
• SMALL BACKYARD SHED
• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN
• ALL-INCLUDED APPLIANCES
• ROOF REPLACEMENT
• NEW WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking features listed
• Utilities: City water (meter installed); Public sewer; Natural gas available; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home)
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved lot; Asphalt road frontage; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Cathedral ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 2.6% in Lafayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#1 in CO, #566 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
• Boulder Valley School District No. Re2 (urban): math 49% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #6 of 86 in CO (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: High Peaks Elementary School (math 74% / reading 82%, grade A, #9 of 966 statewide, top 1%, 266 students, 10% FRL); Centaurus High School (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B-, #38 of 381 statewide, top 10%, 1,525 students, 32% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 71% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Boulder Valley School District No. Re2 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,688 units permitted in Boulder County in 2024 (1,136 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boulder County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.50%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,184
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
708 Dove Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,152 (0%)	13mo	$72,000	$63	81
713 Flamingo Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	5mo	$60,000	$52	78
715 Bunting Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	7mo	$55,000	$52	77
702 Dove Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	13mo	$114,000	$91	67
719 Merlin Dr #719	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (+6%)	6mo	$50,000	$41	65
726 E Cleveland St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-6%)	1mo	$182,000	$167	65
724 Quail Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-3%)	13mo	$75,322	$67	64
11700 E South Boulder Rd #332	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	1mo	$83,800	$69	57
11700 E South Boulder Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	1mo	$83,800	$69	57
710 E Cleveland St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+11%)	6mo	$192,000	$150	54
807 Flamingo Cv	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-15%)	11mo	$48,000	$49	47
11990 E South Boulder Rd #143	0.66mi	3/2.0	980 (-15%)	3mo	$45,000	$46	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $45,907
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $115,722
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80026

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $1,094

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 E Emma St Lafayette, CO	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,625	$1.88	13d	1	0.08mi
718 Dove Dr Lafayette, CO	2.0	2.0	975	$2,204	$2.26	21d	1	0.17mi
440 Strathmore Ln Lafayette, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$2,405	$2.65	13d	15	0.29mi
404 S Foote Ave Unit A Lafayette, CO	2.0	1.0	950	$1,325	$1.39	21d	1	0.35mi
235 S Boulder Rd Lafayette, CO	3.0	1.0–3.5	1320	$3,428	$2.60	13d	1	0.38mi
601 Merlin Dr Lafayette, CO	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$2,355	$2.42	13d	9	0.40mi
772 W Cleveland Cir Lafayette, CO	2.0	2.0	1290	$2,100	$1.63	21d	1	0.67mi
1425 Bacchus Dr Unit C13 Lafayette, CO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	13d	1	1.10mi
1110 # E Unit Centaur Cir unit Lafayette, CO	3.0	2.0	1375	$2,400	$1.75	21d	1	1.21mi
1221 Warrior Way Unit 1 Lafayette, CO	3.0	2.5	1260	$2,795	$2.22	21d	1	1.22mi
695 S Lafayette Dr Lafayette, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,473	$2.75	13d	27	1.33mi
2500 S Public Rd Lafayette, CO	2.0	1.0	775	$1,939	$2.50	13d	3	1.39mi
1247 Ceres Dr Lafayette, CO	4.0	1.5	1132	$3,000	$2.65	13d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $125,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-03-09
   price $125,000
4. 2025-12-02
   listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,379
• − Management: −$2,379
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $11,840
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,842
• After-tax cash flow: $10,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boulder Valley School District No. Re2
• NCES district ID: 0802490
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $70,395
• Composite: 51.3/100
• National rank: #1747
• State rank: #6 of 86 in CO

Livability — Lafayette

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #566

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lafayette, CO
• County: Boulder County · 271,666 people
• City population: 32,701
• Metro: Boulder, CO
• Population (ZIP): 32,701
• Household income: $120,187
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (Boulder County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 380,833 people
• By 2030: 412,028 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 472,764 · +24.1%
• By 2050: 532,029 · +39.7%
• By 2075: 679,723 · +78.5%
• By 2100: 766,278 · +101.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boulder

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+55.8) · D 76.5% · R 20.8% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 46.1pp · 2024: 55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+55.8 2020: D+56.6 2016: D+48.6 2012: D+41.5 2008: D+46.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -489.04%
• Current HPI: 280.2819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.56%
• Metro: Boulder, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $125,000 IRES
• 2025-12-02 Listed $135,000 IRES