Clayton - Aspire Plan · Princeton, TX 75407

$110,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Manufactured · 211 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition $865/mo HOA · 55% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.1

Listing remarks MLS

The Aspire by Clayton Homes is designed for easy, everyday living with a modern open layout and thoughtful details throughout. The kitchen opens to a spacious living area that's perfect for family time or hosting friends, while the private bedrooms offer comfort and quiet at the end of the day. With quality construction and stylish finishes, The Aspire delivers great value and a welcoming feel from the moment you walk in.

Key facts

• Stylish finishes
• Private bedrooms
• Quality construction

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• PRIVATE BEDROOMS
• QUALITY CONSTRUCTION
• STYLISH FINISHES

🏗️ New construction. The $110,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $206,038.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $111k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $55k (50.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $111k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (50.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 0.2% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1749 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; HOA is 55% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,134 (50.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.69%
• DSCR: 0.03
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,038
• List price: $110,995
• Delta: -46.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5202 Finbrooke Dr	1.44mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+0%)	1mo	$248,000	$168	64
813 Wild Rose Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,447 (-2%)	2mo	$271,490	$188	62
416 Ardsley Ln	1.13mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-2%)	2mo	$259,000	$180	59
5300 County Road 437	1.27mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+3%)	2mo	$399,000	$264	59
329 Wild Rose Way	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+24%)	2mo	$329,490	$179	56
829 Wild Rose Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-12%)	2mo	$262,490	$203	43
640 Autumnwood Way	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-15%)	1mo	$254,900	$202	40
4014 Yellowstone Way	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+24%)	2mo	$295,490	$161	36
4009 Bronco Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+24%)	0mo	$286,705	$156	36
849 Wild Rose Way	0.80mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+24%)	2mo	$303,990	$166	33
706 Stallings Dr	1.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,838 (+25%)	2mo	$279,990	$152	33
845 Wild Rose Way	0.79mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (+21%)	2mo	$297,490	$166	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -69.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.80×
• Total profit: $-103,875
• Equity at exit: $30,721

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.32×
• Total profit: $-191,586
• Equity at exit: $17,814

Cash invested: $57,691 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active
• Median asking: $100,995 ($79/sqft)
• Median days on market: 211 d
• This list price: 75% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +77.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1749
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,577 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,080
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$258 /mo · $3,091/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$865
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-1,043

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,897

Max offer price $55,134

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-900	-5% $-972	+0% $-1,043	+5% $-1,114	+10% $-1,185
Rent	-10% $-1,167	-5% $-1,105	+0% $-1,043	+5% $-981	+10% $-918
Rate	-1.0pp $-939	-0.5pp $-990	base $-1,043	+0.5pp $-1,096	+1.0pp $-1,151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,510
• Closing costs: $6,181
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
324 Wild Rose Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,828	$1.41	13d	1	0.27mi
417 Pineywood Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,873	$1.45	39d	1	0.32mi
501 Yellow Rose Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$2,000	$1.55	93d	1	0.33mi
3918 Applewood Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,850	$1.43	48d	1	0.39mi
3924 Pinebluff LN Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$1,850	$1.01	31d	1	0.44mi
4115 Mountain Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,175	$1.21	25d	1	0.52mi
3923 Mountain DR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,700	$1.31	30d	1	0.69mi
3923 Mountain DR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,700	$1.31	26d	1	0.69mi
837 Wild Rose Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,920	$1.32	48d	1	0.74mi
845 Wild Rose Way Unit NA Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$2,000	$1.11	62d	1	0.76mi
849 Wild Rose Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,250	$1.23	48d	1	0.77mi
6589 FM 546 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,300	$0.83	33d	1	0.82mi
4812 Sagerun Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,099	$1.14	52d	1	1.01mi
501 Merriam Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,500	$1.36	68d	1	1.02mi
705 Alden Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,100	$1.32	93d	1	1.07mi
605 Merriam Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,250	$1.41	93d	1	1.07mi
4924 High Timbers Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,095	$1.14	16d	1	1.07mi
4924 High Timbers Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,095	$1.14	19d	1	1.07mi
524 Hackney Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	73d	1	1.07mi
252 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	66d	1	1.08mi
252 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	52d	1	1.08mi
328 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,000	$1.25	1d	1	1.09mi
725 Alden Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,099	$1.32	61d	1	1.09mi
4912 Ascot Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,050	$1.14	93d	1	1.10mi
5028 Waterway Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,200	$1.38	21d	1	1.17mi
5105 Greywing Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,795	$1.25	43d	1	1.19mi
5119 Winterberry Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,090	$1.14	24d	1	1.21mi
5119 Winterberry Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,049	$1.11	13d	1	1.21mi
5119 Penrose Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,095	$1.14	21d	1	1.23mi
5126 Penrose Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,995	$1.09	1d	1	1.25mi
3033 County Road 743 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,250	$0.93	4d	1	1.31mi
108 Wyndemere Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$2,100	$1.46	93d	1	1.34mi
5217 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	56d	1	1.39mi
5217 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$2,186	$1.34	71d	1	1.39mi
4095 County Road 893 Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,200	$1.31	30d	1	1.39mi
5213 Longshadow Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,760	$1.40	4d	1	1.42mi
702 Slocum Way Princeton, TX	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,600	$1.58	43d	1	1.42mi
510 Olmstead Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,795	$1.42	3d	1	1.45mi
518 Olmstead Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1675	$2,000	$1.19	21d	1	1.45mi
122 Lemongrass Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,850	$1.11	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,995 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,995 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,995 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $110,995 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $110,995 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $110,995 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $110,995 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $110,995 Active 202 DOM
9. 2025-11-11
   listed $110,995 Active 425-char remark

   Show marketing remark (425 chars)

   The Aspire by Clayton Homes is designed for easy, everyday living with a modern open layout and thoughtful details throughout. The kitchen opens to a spacious living area that's perfect for family time or hosting friends, while the private bedrooms offer comfort and quiet at the end of the day. With quality construction and stylish finishes, The Aspire delivers great value and a welcoming feel from the moment you walk in.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,541
• − Property taxes: −$3,091
• − Insurance: −$1,030
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,514
• − Management: −$1,514
• − HOA: −$10,380
• − Depreciation: −$5,994
• Taxable loss: −$16,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,873
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Aspire by Clayton Homes is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates focusing on curb appeal and HVAC maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harper El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Clark Middle C- TX #408/1,662 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Princeton H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-11 Listed $110,995 Zillow