40 County Road 2203 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$94,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 992 sqft · Manufactured · 73 Days on market

2.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2.27 Acres – Land Opportunity in Cleveland Great opportunity to own approximately 2.27 acres in a growing area of Cleveland, TX. Property includes an existing 2-bedroom, 1-bath home (approx. 900 sq ft, built 1993) that is in poor condition and being sold as-is. Structure is considered a teardown; value is primarily in the land. The property features well water, electric service available, and an existing septic system (condition unknown). Situated on a spacious lot with plenty of room for new construction, manufactured housing, or other residential use (buyer to verify restrictions and utilities). Quiet, rural setting with easy access to surrounding areas. Ideal for investors, builders, or buyers looking to develop or hold land. Property Details: Lot Size: 2.27 Acres (approx. 98,875 sq ft) Home: 2BR / 1BA, approx. 900 sq ft (no value given) Buyer to independently verify all information, including utilities, restrictions, and feasibility of development.

Key facts

• Electric service
• Easy access
• Quiet rural setting

Tags

• WELL WATER
• ELECTRIC SERVICE
• EXISTING SEPTIC SYSTEM
• SPACIOUS LOT
• QUIET RURAL SETTING
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,299 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.54%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $14,874
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $55,627
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $317/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $714

Max offer price $94,999

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $509	-5% $482	+0% $455	+5% $428	+10% $401
Rent	-10% $353	-5% $404	+0% $455	+5% $506	+10% $557
Rate	-1.0pp $503	-0.5pp $479	base $455	+0.5pp $431	+1.0pp $406

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,999 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,999 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $94,999 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    listed $100,000 Active 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    2.27 Acres – Land Opportunity in Cleveland Great opportunity to own approximately 2.27 acres in a growing area of Cleveland, TX. Property includes an existing 2-bedroom, 1-bath home (approx. 900 sq ft, built 1993) that is in poor condition and being sold as-is. Structure is considered a teardown; value is primarily in the land. The property features well water, electric service available, and an existing septic system (condition unknown). Situated on a spacious lot with plenty of room for new construction, manufactured housing, or other residential use (buyer to verify restrictions and utilities). Quiet, rural setting with easy access to surrounding areas. Ideal for investors, builders, or buyers looking to develop or hold land. Property Details: Lot Size: 2.27 Acres (approx. 98,875 sq ft) Home: 2BR / 1BA, approx. 900 sq ft (no value given) Buyer to independently verify all information, including utilities, restrictions, and feasibility of development.

16. 2003-10-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $317 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,422/yr (+$118/mo · 449.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$317
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$991
• After-tax cash flow: $4,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2003-10-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $317 · -60.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.