Is Kitson Plan in Balch Springs, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 6.4% cap rate and $28/mo modeled cash flow at a $247,999 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Kitson Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 6.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,280/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D Composite 43.63

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +13.9/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
DSCR +4.2/10.0
1% rule +3.9/10.0
Schools +3.5/10.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$247,999

Kitson Plan · Balch Springs, TX 75181

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 393 Days on market

Excellent condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
Open floorplan
Secondary bedrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($334/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (8.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $218k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.6% in Balch Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 68/100 on livability (#487 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Achziger El (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 846 students, 75% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,239 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.89% ✗
Cap rate: 6.42%
Cash-on-cash: 0.46%
DSCR: 1.02
GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $256,650
List price: $247,999
Delta: -3.37%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 Pecan Flats Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	2mo	$230,999	$159	95
116 Pecan Flats Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	2mo	$250,999	$172	93
119 Wild Rose Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	2mo	$233,999	$160	91
112 Cedar Sage Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	2mo	$247,999	$171	91
103 Pecan Flats Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	2mo	$237,499	$163	90
125 Cedar Sage Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	2mo	$234,999	$161	89
121 Cedar Sage Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	2mo	$231,449	$158	88
108 Little Fox Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	2mo	$247,999	$163	86
114 Wren Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	2mo	$256,999	$169	86
133 Wild Rose Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	3mo	$261,068	$172	83
115 Wild Rose Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	2mo	$244,999	$148	64
109 Pecan Flats Rd	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	2mo	$250,499	$151	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -18.9%
Equity multiple: 0.36×
Total profit: $-46,312
Equity at exit: $38,267

10-year hold

IRR: -18.9%
Equity multiple: 0.12×
Total profit: $-63,180
Equity at exit: $22,190

Cash invested: $71,862 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 16 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply: 2.8 mo (35%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $273,999 ($174/sqft)
Median days on market: 75 d
This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +1.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75181

Home prices YoY: -9.4%
Rents YoY: 0.1%
Active inventory: 683
Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,280 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,346
Tax est. 1.5%: −$321 /mo · $3,850/yr
Insurance: −$107
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,245

Max offer price $256,650

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $117	+0% $28	+5% $-61	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-62	+0% $28	+5% $118	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $93	base $28	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $64,162
Closing costs: $7,699
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Woodhill St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,950	$1.26	60d	1	0.71mi
222 Redwood St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,775	$1.57	93d	1	0.75mi
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,395	$1.34	21d	1	0.85mi
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,450	$1.37	38d	1	0.85mi
14625 Briarcrest Dr Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1772	$2,000	$1.13	3d	1	0.97mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$1,899	$1.06	25d	1	1.05mi
4705 Kristie Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1149	$1,695	$1.48	21d	1	1.11mi
1045 Cavern Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,195	$1.32	18d	1	1.14mi
14419 Briarcrest Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,695	$1.26	93d	1	1.18mi
12416 Fish Rd Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1427	$2,011	$1.41	54d	1	1.22mi
15115 Oakwood Ln Unit 1 Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.5	1102	$1,850	$1.68	93d	1	1.23mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,150	$1.30	62d	1	1.23mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,095	$1.26	42d	1	1.23mi
272 W Lawson Rd Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,449	$1.37	15d	1	1.34mi
2800 Crockett Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	71d	1	1.36mi
13131 Rocky Ledge Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,783	$1.14	27d	1	1.41mi
4320 Mohawk Dr Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1110	$1,900	$1.71	73d	1	1.42mi
4605 Navajo Trl Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,795	$1.56	93d	1	1.43mi
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	93d	1	1.44mi
2724 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,300	$1.64	73d	1	1.47mi
4122 Cochise Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,695	$1.50	28d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $247,999 Active 393 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $247,999 Active 391 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $247,999 Active 390 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $247,999 Active 389 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $247,999 Active 388 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $247,999 Active 385 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $247,999 Active 384 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $247,999 Active 383 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $247,999 Active 382 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $247,999 Active 380 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $247,999 Active 378 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $247,999 Active 377 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $247,999 Active 376 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $247,999 Active 374 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $247,999 Active 372 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $247,999 Active 371 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $247,999 Active 370 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $247,999 Active 369 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $247,999 Active 368 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $247,999 Active 367 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $247,999 Active 366 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $247,999 Active 365 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $247,999 Active 364 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $247,999 Active 363 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $247,999 Active 361 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $247,999 Active 360 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $247,999 Active 359 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $247,999 Active 358 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $247,999 Active 357 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $247,999 Active 356 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $247,999 Active 355 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $247,999 Active 354 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $247,999 Active 353 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $247,999 Active 352 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $247,999 Active 350 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $247,999 Active 348 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $247,999 Active 346 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $247,999 Active 345 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $247,999 Active 342 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $247,999 Active 341 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $247,999 Active 340 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $247,999 Active 339 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $247,999 Active 337 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $247,999 Active 336 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $247,999 Active 333 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $247,999 Active 332 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $247,999 Active 331 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $247,999 Active 328 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $247,999 Active 327 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $247,999 Active 326 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,364
− Mortgage interest: −$14,376
− Property taxes: −$3,850
− Insurance: −$1,283
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
− Management: −$2,189
− Depreciation: −$7,466
Taxable loss: −$3,989

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$957
After-tax cash flow: $1,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floorplan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Achziger El F TX #2,208/4,322 Nat'l #24,614/41,679 Middle Terry Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Horn H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Mesquite ISD
NCES district ID: 4830390
Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income: $49,372
Composite: 29.06/100
National rank: #6606
State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Balch Springs

Score: 68/100
State rank: #487
US rank: #9673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
City population: 26,455
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 29,788
Household income: $111,052
Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
Severe rent burden: 29% of renters

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
Current HPI: 257.0959
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2025-07-12 Listed $247,999 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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