Kitson Plan · Balch Springs, TX 75181

$247,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 440 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $247,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $256,650.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($484/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.6% in Balch Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#487 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Achziger El (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 846 students, 75% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 768 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 440 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,239 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 440 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.67%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,650
• List price: $247,999
• Delta: -3.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 Pecan Flats Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	3mo	$230,999	$159	93
116 Pecan Flats Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	3mo	$250,999	$172	92
119 Wild Rose Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	3mo	$233,999	$160	90
112 Cedar Sage Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	4mo	$247,999	$171	89
103 Pecan Flats Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	4mo	$237,499	$163	88
125 Cedar Sage Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	4mo	$234,999	$161	87
121 Cedar Sage Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	4mo	$231,449	$158	87
108 Little Fox Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	3mo	$247,999	$163	85
114 Wren Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	4mo	$256,999	$169	85
133 Wild Rose Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+5%)	4mo	$261,068	$172	82
115 Wild Rose Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	3mo	$244,999	$148	62
109 Pecan Flats Rd	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	4mo	$250,499	$151	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-45,563
• Equity at exit: $38,267

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-61,681
• Equity at exit: $22,190

Cash invested: $71,862 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.1 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $268,999 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 62 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 768
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,296 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,346
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$321 /mo · $3,850/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,245

Max offer price $256,650

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $129	+0% $40	+5% $-48	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-50	+0% $40	+5% $131	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $106	base $40	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,162
• Closing costs: $7,699
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Bowles Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,495	$1.23	11d	1	0.35mi
4633 Timbercrest Way Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1811	$2,050	$1.13	10d	1	0.70mi
127 Woodhill St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,950	$1.26	106d	1	0.71mi
207 Redwood St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,849	$1.53	39d	1	0.74mi
222 Redwood St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,775	$1.57	139d	1	0.75mi
1513 Lone Star Ct Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1791	$3,500	$1.95	45d	1	0.76mi
216 Woodgrove St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	0.81mi
1424 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,695	$1.94	41d	1	0.82mi
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,395	$1.34	67d	1	0.85mi
1320 Junction Run Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,450	$1.37	84d	1	0.85mi
14625 Briarcrest Dr Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1772	$2,000	$1.13	50d	1	0.97mi
4713 Bridlewood Ln Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,985	$1.13	5d	1	1.01mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$1,899	$1.06	71d	1	1.05mi
4705 Kristie Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1149	$1,695	$1.48	68d	1	1.11mi
1045 Cavern Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,095	$1.26	18d	1	1.14mi
14419 Briarcrest Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,695	$1.26	139d	1	1.18mi
14416 Oakwood Ln Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1562	$1,975	$1.26	20d	1	1.18mi
12416 Fish Rd Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1427	$2,011	$1.41	101d	1	1.22mi
15115 Oakwood Ln Unit 1 Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.5	1102	$1,850	$1.68	139d	1	1.23mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,150	$1.30	108d	1	1.23mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,095	$1.26	89d	1	1.23mi
272 W Lawson Rd Dallas, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1088	$1,699	$1.56	0d	1	1.34mi
4030 Rustic Trl Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,783	$1.01	45d	1	1.36mi
2800 Crockett Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	117d	1	1.36mi
13131 Rocky Ledge Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,783	$1.14	73d	1	1.41mi
4320 Mohawk Dr Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1110	$1,900	$1.71	120d	1	1.42mi
4605 Navajo Trl Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,795	$1.56	139d	1	1.43mi
14017 Spring Oak Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,790	$1.33	6d	1	1.44mi
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	139d	1	1.44mi
2724 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,300	$1.64	120d	1	1.47mi
12207 China Lake Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,095	$1.35	11d	1	1.49mi
4122 Cochise Dr Balch Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,695	$1.50	75d	1	1.50mi
3934 Cochise Dr Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	1766	$1,885	$1.07	4d	1	1.50mi
3934 Cochise Dr Balch Springs, TX	4.0	2.5	1766	$2,001	$1.13	11d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $247,999 Active 440 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $247,999 Active 439 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $247,999 Active 438 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $247,999 Active 437 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $247,999 Active 436 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $247,999 Active 435 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $247,999 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $247,999 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $247,999 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $247,999 Active 431 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $247,999 Active 430 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $247,999 Active 429 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $247,999 Active 428 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $247,999 Active 427 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $247,999 Active 421 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $247,999 Active 420 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $247,999 Active 418 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $247,999 Active 416 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $247,999 Active 414 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $247,999 Active 413 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $247,999 Active 412 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $247,999 Active 411 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $247,999 Active 410 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $247,999 Active 409 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $247,999 Active 408 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $247,999 Active 407 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $247,999 Active 406 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $247,999 Active 405 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $247,999 Active 404 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $247,999 Active 403 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $247,999 Active 402 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $247,999 Active 401 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $247,999 Active 400 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $247,999 Active 399 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $247,999 Active 398 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $247,999 Active 397 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $247,999 Active 396 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $247,999 Active 395 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $247,999 Active 394 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $247,999 Active 393 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $247,999 Active 391 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $247,999 Active 390 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $247,999 Active 389 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $247,999 Active 388 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $247,999 Active 385 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $247,999 Active 384 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $247,999 Active 383 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $247,999 Active 382 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $247,999 Active 380 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $247,999 Active 378 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,376
• − Property taxes: −$3,850
• − Insurance: −$1,283
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − Depreciation: −$7,466
• Taxable loss: −$3,830
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$919
• After-tax cash flow: $1,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floorplan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 35/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Achziger El F TX #2,208/4,322 Nat'l #24,614/41,679 Middle Terry Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Horn H S F TX #866/1,632 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Balch Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #487
• US rank: #9673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 26,455
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 29% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-12 Listed $247,999 Zillow