2121 S Pantano Rd #108 · Tucson, AZ 85710

$62,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 195 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1990 Good condition 61 ac lot $64/sqft · 54% below area $658/mo HOA · 69% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.1

Listing remarks MLS

FINANCING AVAILABLE, call for details. Charming 2 bed, 2 bath manufactured home located in the desirable Tucson Meadows 55+ community! This adorable home features a split floor plan for added privacy and comfort. Enjoy a beautiful balcony perfect for relaxing while taking in a glimpse of the mountain views. Additional highlights include a private laundry area, spacious carport with room for up to 3 vehicles, and a dedicated dog run, ideal for pet owners. Residents of Tucson Meadows enjoy an impressive list of amenities including a heated swimming pool and spa, clubhouse, recreation center, fitness equipment, health spa saunas, and game room. The community also offers private streets ideal for walking and biking, picnic areas, and RV storage.

Key facts

• Dedicated dog run
• Clubhouse
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE LAUNDRY AREA
• SPACIOUS CARPORT
• DEDICATED DOG RUN
• HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $14k (77.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($955 rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (77.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate -0.2% vs local median 3.8% in Tucson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dietz K-8 School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #937 of 1,109 statewide, top 85%, 390 students, 83% FRL); Secrist Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #194 of 218 statewide, top 90%, 304 students, 76% FRL); Palo Verde High Magnet School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 691 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 69% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $13,924 (77.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 78% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: -0.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.02%
• DSCR: -0.02
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,355
• List price: $62,500
• Delta: -54.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1770 S Avenida Prado	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,055 (+8%)	1mo	$100,000	$95	67
8357 E Avenida De Las Pampas	0.37mi	2/1.0	904 (-8%)	2mo	$180,000	$199	64
7617 E Morelos Pl	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,020 (+4%)	0mo	$224,004	$220	60
8202 E Kenyon Dr	0.98mi	2/2.0	958 (-2%)	2mo	$260,000	$271	60
828 S Langley Ave #101	1.50mi	2/2.0	945 (-4%)	0mo	$125,000	$132	59
8342 E Cypress Point Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,119 (+14%)	1mo	$211,250	$189	56
8338 E Placita Prado	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,193 (+22%)	0mo	$238,240	$200	55
8360 E Avenida De Las Pampas	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,193 (+22%)	0mo	$226,000	$189	52
7918 E 19th Pl	0.86mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,023 (+4%)	1mo	$210,000	$205	48
925 S Pantano Pkwy	0.87mi	2/2.0	1,138 (+16%)	0mo	$213,000	$187	40
8338 E Shasta Dr	0.87mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,157 (+18%)	1mo	$236,300	$204	30
603 S Liana Ct	1.24mi	1/1.0 (-1)	788 (-20%)	2mo	$165,000	$209	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -71.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-32,407
• Equity at exit: $9,319

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.39×
• Total profit: $-59,304
• Equity at exit: $5,404

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85710

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $955 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$78 /mo · $938/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$658
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,380

Max offer price $13,924

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-293	-5% $-314	+0% $-336	+5% $-357	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-411	-5% $-373	+0% $-336	+5% $-298	+10% $-260
Rate	-1.0pp $-304	-0.5pp $-320	base $-336	+0.5pp $-352	+1.0pp $-368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2425 S Rose Peak Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,200	$1.46	112d	1	0.32mi
1800 S Pantano Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	650	$936	$1.44	0d	20	0.48mi
7777 E Golf Links Rd #8206 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,050	$0.94	97d	1	0.51mi
7777 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,162	$1.04	98d	2	0.51mi
8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,487	$1.72	0d	36	0.58mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,292	$1.47	63d	1	0.63mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$1,229	$2.01	82d	1	0.63mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,308	$1.49	98d	1	0.63mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$1,093	$1.79	6d	1	0.63mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$1,094	$1.79	139d	1	0.63mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,219	$1.39	4d	1	0.63mi
7668 E 22nd St #75 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	107d	1	0.69mi
7666 E 22nd St #52 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,495	$1.78	139d	1	0.71mi
7664 E 22nd St #20 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	576	$900	$1.56	9d	1	0.73mi
7664 E 22nd St Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	708	$1,395	$1.97	74d	2	0.73mi
7664 E 22nd St #4 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	88d	1	0.73mi
8485 E 22nd St Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	696	$1,362	$1.96	0d	21	0.77mi
8535 E Seabury Ct Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	966	$1,400	$1.45	110d	1	0.89mi
7384 E Cross Ridge Pl Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	989	$1,450	$1.47	119d	1	0.94mi
8508 E Fond du Lac Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,450	$1.39	9d	1	0.96mi
8518 E Fond du Lac Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,595	$1.54	0d	1	0.97mi
7400 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	571	$1,217	$2.13	0d	29	0.97mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	117d	1	1.01mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	74d	1	1.01mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	7d	1	1.01mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	6d	1	1.01mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	2d	1	1.01mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	4d	1	1.01mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	67d	1	1.01mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	99d	1	1.01mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	702	$945	$1.35	9d	1	1.01mi
2650 S Oakenshield Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	987	$1,549	$1.57	9d	1	1.05mi
801 S Prudence Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	714	$1,152	$1.61	6d	33	1.09mi
8836 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	9d	1	1.15mi
8838 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	799	$1,295	$1.62	115d	1	1.15mi
8838 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	799	$1,295	$1.62	74d	1	1.15mi
1345 S Kolb Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,159	$1.16	6d	1	1.16mi
1345 S Kolb Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,399	$1.33	139d	1	1.16mi
1345 S Kolb Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,050	$1.00	7d	1	1.16mi
1345 S Kolb Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	576	$899	$1.56	9d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail $658/mo · $7,896/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $62,500 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $62,500 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $62,500 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $62,500 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $62,500 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $62,500 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $62,500 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $62,500 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $62,500 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $62,500 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $62,500 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $62,500 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $62,500 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $62,500 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $62,500 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $62,500 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $62,500 Active 172 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $62,500 Active 170 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $62,500 Active 169 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $62,500 Active 168 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $62,500 Active 167 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $62,500 Active 166 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $62,500 Active 165 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $62,500 Active 164 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $62,500 Active 163 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $62,500 Active 162 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $62,500 Active 161 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $62,500 Active 160 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $62,500 Active 159 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $62,500 Active 158 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $62,500 Active 157 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $62,500 Active 156 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $62,500 Active 155 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $62,500 Active 154 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $62,500 Active 153 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $62,500 Active 152 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $62,500 Active 151 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $62,500 Active 150 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $62,500 Active 149 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $62,500 Active 148 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $62,500 Active 147 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $62,500 Active 146 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $62,500 Active 145 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $62,500 Active 144 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $62,500 Active 141 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $62,500 Active 140 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $62,500 Active 139 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $62,500 Active 138 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $62,500 Active 136 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $62,500 Active 134 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥105°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$938
• − Insurance: −$312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$917
• − Management: −$917
• − HOA: −$7,896
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,162
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,900–$14,700 screening

This charming manufactured home in Tucson Meadows is in good condition with a good curb appeal and minimal maintenance needs. It offers a split floor plan and a private balcony, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained garden can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, boosting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior updates (e.g., new flooring, paint, fixtures) — These updates can significantly enhance the home's appearance and functionality, increasing its value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 11/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Dietz K-8 School F AZ #937/1,109 Nat'l #37,629/41,679 Middle Secrist Middle School F AZ #194/218 Nat'l #13,419/14,009 High Palo Verde High Magnet School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 56,125
• Household income: $57,175
• Rent vs Own: 45.5% rent · 54.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -287.68%
• Current HPI: 291.8039
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $65,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-12 Listed $69,000 MLSSAZ