492 Hocking Hills Dr · Waxahachie, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 24 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 27.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +9.8/15.0
- Cash flow +6.7/30.0
- Schools +4.3/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Rent growth +3.4/5.0
- 1% rule +1.9/10.0
- DSCR +0.9/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$394,990
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
The Stanley II is a winning combination of comfort and adaptability. The main floor offers a bedroom with a full bath for guests. Of course, no one could blame you if you crafted an exceptional workout room instead. A wall of windows in the airy living room illuminates the space with natural light that carries into the casual dining area and the spectacular kitchen. Quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and a gorgeous island ensure the kitchen will be everyone's favorite space. The presence of an upstairs loft near the bedrooms with a full bath creates a home-within-a-home!
Key facts
- Spectacular kitchen
- Workout room
- Full bath for guests
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $395k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-633 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (23.2% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (31.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $272k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Waxahachie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 78/100 on livability (#71 in TX, #2,592 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: commute F.
- Waxahachie ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #253 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Dunaway El (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 454 students, 64% FRL); Howard J H (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 758 students, 49% FRL); Waxahachie H S (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,963 students, 45% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1068 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.69% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.37%
- Cash-on-cash
- -6.87%
- DSCR
- 0.69
- GRM
- 12.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $416,613
- List price
- $394,990
- Delta
- -5.19%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 492 Hundred Acre Dr | 0.06mi | 4/3.0 | 2,447 (-0%) | 1mo | $399,990 | $163 | 96 |
| 480 Hundred Acre Dr | 0.07mi | 4/3.0 | 2,466 (+1%) | 1mo | $404,990 | $164 | 95 |
| 445 Hundred Acre Dr | 0.16mi | 4/3.0 | 2,444 (-0%) | 1mo | $394,990 | $162 | 92 |
| 488 Hocking Hills Dr | 0.01mi | 4/3.0 | 2,667 (+9%) | 1mo | $434,990 | $163 | 84 |
| 481 Hocking Hills Dr | 0.05mi | 4/3.0 | 2,653 (+8%) | 0mo | $434,990 | $164 | 83 |
| 493 Hundred Acre Dr | 0.09mi | 4/3.0 | 2,152 (-12%) | 0mo | $369,990 | $172 | 76 |
| 504 Red Maple Rd | 0.40mi | 3/3.0 (-1) | 2,527 (+3%) | 1mo | $455,000 | $180 | 70 |
| 577 Red Maple Rd | 0.49mi | 4/2.5 | 2,519 (+3%) | 1mo | $430,000 | $171 | 69 |
| 529 Sanctuary Dr | 0.45mi | 3/2.5 (-1) | 2,521 (+3%) | 1mo | $440,000 | $175 | 66 |
| 1808 Peace Lily Ln | 0.49mi | 3/3.0 (-1) | 2,280 (-7%) | 1mo | $464,990 | $204 | 60 |
| 1879 Silver Birch Rd | 0.63mi | 4/3.0 | 2,597 (+6%) | 0mo | $425,000 | $164 | 60 |
| 1808 Peace Lily Ln | 0.49mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,282 (-7%) | 1mo | $437,304 | $192 | 56 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.4% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -27.7%
- Equity multiple
- 0.07×
- Total profit
- $-103,180
- Equity at exit
- $58,894
- IRR
- -24.7%
- Equity multiple
- -0.24×
- Total profit
- $-136,965
- Equity at exit
- $34,152
Cash invested: $110,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 90 active · 54 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $438,745 ($174/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 73 d
- This list price
- 16% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -2.3% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 75165
- Home prices YoY
- -24.5%
- Rents YoY
- 3.4%
- Active inventory
- 1068
- Price-to-rent
- 12.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,717 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,071
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$494 /mo · $5,925/yr
- Insurance
- −$165
- HOA
- −$50
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$571
- Net cashflow
- $-633
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-360 | -5% $-497 | +0% $-633 | +5% $-770 | +10% $-906 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-848 | -5% $-741 | +0% $-633 | +5% $-526 | +10% $-419 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-435 | -0.5pp $-533 | base $-633 | +0.5pp $-736 | +1.0pp $-840 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $98,748
- Closing costs
- $11,850
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 19 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 425 Leopold Trl Waxahachie, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2185 | $2,625 | $1.20 | 12d | 1 | 0.17mi |
| 1909 Ethereal Ln Waxahachie, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1663 | $2,400 | $1.44 | 92d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 1873 Ethereal Ln Waxahachie, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1680 | $2,350 | $1.40 | 92d | 1 | 0.47mi |
| 152 Aucuba Ln Waxahachie, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2140 | $2,795 | $1.31 | 34d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 116 Aucuba Ln Waxahachie, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2140 | $2,850 | $1.33 | 92d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 2186 Liriope Ln Waxahachie, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2590 | $2,829 | $1.09 | 71d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 217 Resting Place Rd Waxahachie, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2521 | $2,800 | $1.11 | 73d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 217 Resting Place Rd Waxahachie, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2533 | $2,800 | $1.11 | 71d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 334 Sahara Dr Waxahachie, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2254 | $2,895 | $1.28 | 48d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 128 Jennings Dr Waxahachie, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1837 | $2,450 | $1.33 | 38d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 508 Bush Ave Waxahachie, TX | 5.0 | 3.5 | 3269 | $3,750 | $1.15 | 69d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 1610 Wildflower Dr Waxahachie, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 3042 | $3,100 | $1.02 | 54d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 404 Southhill Dr Waxahachie, TX | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3126 | $3,500 | $1.12 | 92d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 3000 Huntington Ct Waxahachie, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1652 | $2,020 | $1.22 | 0d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 1566 Country Crest Dr Waxahachie, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2568 | $2,900 | $1.13 | 92d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 229 Silver Spur Dr Waxahachie, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2146 | $2,496 | $1.16 | 42d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 3016 Coventry Ln Waxahachie, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2005 | $3,000 | $1.50 | 53d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 2121 Layla Dr Waxahachie, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1646 | $2,350 | $1.43 | 92d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 102 Monarch Ct Waxahachie, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1589 | $2,100 | $1.32 | 37d | 1 | 1.50mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Community amenities: community pool, park, playground
- Financial info
- Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
- HOA & community
- Mandatory HOA (Dove Hollow)Annual association fee (management fees included)HOA management: Neighborhood Management, Inc.
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 covered parking spacesGarage faces front and has side-by-side configuration (approx. 20' x 20')
- Security
- Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detector(s)
- Utilities
- Community mailboxCurbs and sidewalksEnergy-efficient appliances, HVAC, insulation, lighting, windows, water heater, mechanical fresh air, thermostat controls, rain/freeze sensorsLow-flow fixtures and water-smart landscaping
- Home design
- Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo-storyNew construction (incomplete) built 2025Located in the Dove Hollow planned development
- Construction
- Brick, rock/stone, and siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
- Exterior features
- Covered porch(es)Covered patio/porchGuttersExterior lightingPrivate backyardWood backyard fence
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalElectric ovenGas cooktopMicrowaveTankless water heater
- Bedrooms
- 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1; other bedrooms on levels 1 and 2)
- Flooring
- CarpetLaminateTile
- Bathrooms
- 3 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingCentral airCeiling fans
- Interior features
- Open floorplanCable TV availableHigh-speed internet availableWalk-in closets8 total roomsOne living areaOne dining areaTwo levels
- Laundry & utility
- Utility room with full-size washer/dryer areaWasher and dryer hookups (electric dryer hookup)
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $394,990 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $394,990 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $394,990 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $394,990 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $394,990 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $394,990 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $394,990 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $394,990 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $394,990 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $394,990 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $394,990 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $394,990 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $394,990 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $394,990 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $394,990 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $394,990 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $394,990 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $394,990 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $394,990 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $394,990 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $394,990 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $394,990 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $394,990 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $394,990 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-07-09pricedays on market $394,990 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $399,990 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $399,990 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $399,990 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $399,990 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $399,990 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $399,990 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $399,990 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $399,990 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $399,990 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $399,990 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $399,990 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $399,990 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $399,990 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $399,990 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $399,990 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $399,990 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $399,990 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $399,990 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $399,990 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $399,990 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $399,990 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $399,990 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $399,990 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $399,990 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $399,990 Active 29 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $32,601
- − Mortgage interest
- −$22,126
- − Property taxes
- −$5,925
- − Insurance
- −$1,975
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,608
- − Management
- −$2,608
- − HOA
- −$600
- − Depreciation
- −$11,491
- Taxable loss
- −$14,731
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,535
- After-tax cash flow
- $-4,066/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos
This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
- Rental Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑
- Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Waxahachie ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4844730
- Math proficiency
- 45% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 44% ▼ -6.00%
- Median HH income
- $59,434
- Composite
- 39.14/100
- National rank
- #4034
- State rank
- #253 of 826 in TX
Livability — Waxahachie
- Score
- 78/100
- State rank
- #71
- US rank
- #2592
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Waxahachie, TX
- County
- Ellis County · 194,556 people
- City population
- 67,417
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 53,513
- Household income
- $86,391
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 14% of renters
Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 194,556 people
- By 2030
- 209,679 · +7.8%
- By 2040
- 238,837 · +22.8%
- By 2050
- 265,451 · +36.4%
- By 2075
- 326,571 · +67.9%
- By 2100
- 362,156 · +86.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 14% Two or more races 13%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 22%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 7% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 84% English-only · Spanish 15%
Political lean MEDSL · Ellis
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -82.58%
- Current HPI
- 255.0247
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.40%
- Metro
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
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| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
+0.0% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-06 Listed $399,990 NTREIS
- 2026-05-06 Listed $399,990 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…