304 Brazos · Groesbeck, TX 76642

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1941 4,356 sqft lot $30/sqft · 67% below area ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lots of space to build or renew structure. Needs some loving and care.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1941

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $594 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 1.6% in Groesbeck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#777 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Groesbeck ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 17 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Limestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.60%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,115
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -67.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 E Yeagua St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,396 (-5%)	18mo	$169,000	$121	71
402 W Yeagua St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+1%)	12mo	$130,000	$87	66
305 S Rusk St	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+9%)	10mo	$109,000	$68	64
807 Cherry Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-1%)	8mo	$135,000	$92	56
705 Cherry Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-1%)	11mo	$198,000	$136	54
210 S Leon St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,456 (-1%)	22mo	$59,000	$41	52
709 W State St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-2%)	19mo	$175,000	$121	48
205 Majestic Prince St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,374 (-7%)	19mo	$185,000	$135	48
101 Meadow Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,669 (+13%)	21mo	$69,000	$41	43
402 Allison Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-9%)	20mo	$200,000	$149	38
609 W State St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-11%)	21mo	$189,500	$144	35
704 W Brazos St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,674 (+13%)	9mo	$149,000	$89	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $30,575
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $75,426
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76642

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $637/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $390

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 E State St Groesbeck, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	13d	1	0.10mi
609 E Walker St Groesbeck, TX	4.0	2.0	1554	$1,095	$0.70	44d	1	0.39mi
408 W Trinity St Groesbeck, TX	2.0	1.0	1174	$1,300	$1.11	13d	1	0.42mi
410 W Trinity St Groesbeck, TX	3.0	1.0	1568	$900	$0.57	44d	1	0.43mi
802 W Navasota St Groesbeck, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$895	$0.53	21d	1	0.61mi
706 W Sabine St Groesbeck, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$695	$0.68	21d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $45,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $45,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $45,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $45,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-04-16
   listed $45,000 Active 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Lots of space to build or renew structure. Needs some loving and care.

9. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
10. 2026-01-06
    historical
11. 2025-12-04
    price $49,000
12. 2025-09-18
    price $60,000
13. 2025-09-18
    status Active
14. 2025-09-09
    status Pending
15. 2025-08-08
    listed $85,000 Active
16. 2024-10-25
    historical
17. 2024-06-03
    listed $100,000
18. 1996-05-15
    soldstatus
19. 1989-08-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$186/yr (+$16/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$637
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,096
• − Management: −$1,096
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,819
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,637
• After-tax cash flow: $5,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groesbeck ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821810
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,929
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7487
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Groesbeck

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #777
• US rank: #14137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Groesbeck, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,226

Population outlook (Limestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,396 people
• By 2030: 23,214 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 22,829 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 22,516 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 22,088 · -5.6%
• By 2100: 20,354 · -13.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Limestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 21.2% · R 78.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+52.3 2012: R+40.7 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.70%
• Current HPI: 190.097
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-55.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $45,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $49,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $60,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-09-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-06-03 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 1996-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $637 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.