23111 True Fortune Dr · Houston, TX 77493

$255,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,192 sqft lot Est $308k · 17% under $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great standard features, including granite countertops in kitchen and all baths, 42 inch cabinets, whirlpool brand appliances, tankless water heater, full sod front and back with irrigation, home automation powered by Google, large walk-in showers, coach lights and more!

Key facts

• 5,192 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community Solutions association; Annual association fee of $750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2022; Brick and stone construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 14); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (10 x 10; 11 x 10; 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (11.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $227k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Stockdick J H (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,313 students, 55% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 27% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,710 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,835
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23014 True Fortune Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,602 (+0%)	11mo	$280,000	$175	85
23238 Spring Genesis Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,583 (-1%)	10mo	$305,000	$193	74
5827 Blue Grama	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,785 (+12%)	15mo	$327,990	$184	54
6027 Bristol Spur Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (+11%)	0mo	$325,000	$183	52
5814 Blue Grama	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,785 (+12%)	20mo	$328,990	$184	50
23615 Cinnamon Tree Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (+9%)	1mo	$374,600	$216	49
23014 Indigo Prairie Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,645 (+3%)	8mo	$275,000	$167	48
23631 Red Rowan	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (+9%)	1mo	$314,990	$182	48
23306 Kinsfolk Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-13%)	20mo	$299,990	$216	46
23026 Needlegrass Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,653 (+4%)	16mo	$330,000	$200	43
22814 Frassino Pl Unit TX	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+5%)	18mo	$369,990	$221	39
5818 Blue Grama Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-13%)	21mo	$299,990	$216	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-59,049
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-93,574
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,693 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$781 /mo · $9,371/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,895

Max offer price $226,710

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-88	+0% $-160	+5% $-232	+10% $-304
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-267	+0% $-160	+5% $-54	+10% $53
Rate	-1.0pp $-32	-0.5pp $-95	base $-160	+0.5pp $-226	+1.0pp $-293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23030 Cunningham Falls Trl Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1213	$2,900	$2.39	0d	242	0.41mi
5103 Visionary Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1692	$3,096	$1.83	3d	9	0.59mi
22824 Frassino Pl Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	3d	1	0.70mi
22865 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,759	$1.37	17d	1	0.75mi
22808 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,499	$1.25	0d	1	0.75mi
22728 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,369	$1.42	26d	1	0.77mi
22712 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,179	$1.49	26d	1	0.77mi
22855 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,399	$1.44	14d	1	0.77mi
22738 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	21d	1	0.77mi
22851 Terazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1740	$3,304	$1.90	0d	1	0.78mi
22716 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,439	$1.31	7d	1	0.78mi
22841 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,249	$1.54	7d	1	0.78mi
22616 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,539	$1.36	17d	1	0.78mi
22622 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	0.78mi
22614 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,539	$1.36	14d	1	0.79mi
22718 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,439	$1.30	7d	1	0.79mi
22722 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,559	$1.27	18d	1	0.79mi
22624 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.79mi
22720 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	0.79mi
22626 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,699	$1.35	45d	1	0.80mi
22737 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,649	$1.41	45d	1	0.81mi
22628 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,659	$1.32	17d	1	0.81mi
22719 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2004	$2,559	$1.28	19d	1	0.81mi
22743 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	1200	$2,309	$1.92	45d	1	0.82mi
22717 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2017	$2,629	$1.30	7d	1	0.82mi
22713 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,419	$1.45	14d	1	0.83mi
22617 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,279	$1.56	45d	1	0.84mi
22615 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.85mi
22629 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	7d	1	0.85mi
22627 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,239	$1.53	7d	1	0.86mi
22613 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1873	$2,569	$1.37	45d	1	0.86mi
22611 Terrazzo Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,569	$1.38	45d	1	0.86mi
5022 Brewcastle Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,100	$1.38	45d	1	1.07mi
22700 Elyson Falls Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1658	$2,925	$1.76	1d	1	1.11mi
4411 Andorno Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2094	$2,221	$1.06	26d	1	1.21mi
22843 Castello Lakes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,148	$1.06	23d	1	1.33mi
24246 Palomino Sage Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,305	$1.24	46d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $255,000 Active
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $2,150 Active
17. 2026-04-17
    historical
18. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus Sold 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Great standard features, including granite countertops in kitchen and all baths, 42 inch cabinets, whirlpool brand appliances, tankless water heater, full sod front and back with irrigation, home automation powered by Google, large walk-in showers, coach lights and more!

19. 2022-03-03
    listed $324,995 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Great standard features, including granite countertops in kitchen and all baths, 42 inch cabinets, whirlpool brand appliances, tankless water heater, full sod front and back with irrigation, home automation powered by Google, large walk-in showers, coach lights and more!

20. 2022-03-03
    historical 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Great standard features, including granite countertops in kitchen and all baths, 42 inch cabinets, whirlpool brand appliances, tankless water heater, full sod front and back with irrigation, home automation powered by Google, large walk-in showers, coach lights and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,371 · $781/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,371 · $781/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$9,371
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,585
• − Management: −$2,585
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,961
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,431
• After-tax cash flow: $-491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and hardwood floors. The exterior is well-maintained with stone siding and landscaping. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed for optimal resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $2,150 HARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-03-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-03-03 Listed $324,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

+86.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,371 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.