10349 Navarro Path · Conroe, TX 77316

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · Land · 76 Days on market

Built 2026 5,125 sqft lot $171/sqft · 5% below area Est $269k · 5% under $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 10349 Navarro Path, Montgomery, TX — a new construction home built by M/I Homes, offering 1,491 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. This home features a well-crafted floorplan, including 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and the owner's bedroom conveniently located in a private corner of the home, making it an ideal layout for comfortable everyday living. Step inside to discover an open-concept living space that connects the main areas of the home seamlessly, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The quality of design is evident throughout, with carefully selected finishes and attention to detail that reflect the craftsmanship M/I Homes is known for. Key Features: Front-loading 2-car garage Covered patio Covered porch Bay window in owner's bedroom Sloped ceilings in the kitchen and family and dining rooms This home is situated in a welcoming community with convenient proximity to parks, offering residents easy access to outdoor recreation and green spaces. The surrounding area provides a pleasant setting that enhances the overall lifestyle this home delivers. Every detail of this new construction home has been designed with both function and style in mind, providing a space that is move-in ready and built to the standards you expect from a reputable builder like M/I Homes. MLS# 12948512

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Modern appliances
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SLEEK COUNTERTOPS
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• COVERED PATIO
• TRANQUIL NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($53/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $203,139 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,994
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -5.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-46,287
• Equity at exit: $38,020

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-60,401
• Equity at exit: $22,047

Cash invested: $71,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,163/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,026

Max offer price $254,990

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $77	+0% $4	+5% $-68	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-76	+0% $4	+5% $85	+10% $165
Rate	-1.0pp $133	-0.5pp $69	base $4	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,748
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $254,990 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,990 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,990 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,990 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,990 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $260,990 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,990 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $260,990 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,990 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,990 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    price $260,990 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,990 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,990 Active 55 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    price $265,990 1385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1385 chars)

    Welcome to 10349 Navarro Path, Montgomery, TX — a new construction home built by M/I Homes, offering 1,491 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. This home features a well-crafted floorplan, including 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and the owner's bedroom conveniently located in a private corner of the home, making it an ideal layout for comfortable everyday living. Step inside to discover an open-concept living space that connects the main areas of the home seamlessly, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The quality of design is evident throughout, with carefully selected finishes and attention to detail that reflect the craftsmanship M/I Homes is known for. Key Features: Front-loading 2-car garage Covered patio Covered porch Bay window in owner's bedroom Sloped ceilings in the kitchen and family and dining rooms This home is situated in a welcoming community with convenient proximity to parks, offering residents easy access to outdoor recreation and green spaces. The surrounding area provides a pleasant setting that enhances the overall lifestyle this home delivers. Every detail of this new construction home has been designed with both function and style in mind, providing a space that is move-in ready and built to the standards you expect from a reputable builder like M/I Homes. MLS# 12948512

19. 2026-05-04
    price $265,990 929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (929 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION! READY IN JUNE! The Azalea plan is a modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 2-car garage home built by M/I Homes. The open floor plan connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly. The kitchen features sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. This single-story home spans 1,491 sq. ft. and includes 3 bedrooms, an owner's bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, a luxurious walk-in shower, a dual sink vanity, and a soaking tub. Additionally, there are 2 more bedrooms that can be used for guests, children, or a home office, providing versatility to suit your needs. Outside is a covered patio in the backyard for those lovely, cool, peaceful mornings and evenings. The property is located in the tranquil neighborhood of Lone Star Landing, offering easy access to local amenities, schools, parks, and highways. Don't hesitate to get in touch with us to schedule a private showing.

20. 2026-04-07
    listed $270,990 Active 1385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1385 chars)

    Welcome to 10349 Navarro Path, Montgomery, TX — a new construction home built by M/I Homes, offering 1,491 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. This home features a well-crafted floorplan, including 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and the owner's bedroom conveniently located in a private corner of the home, making it an ideal layout for comfortable everyday living. Step inside to discover an open-concept living space that connects the main areas of the home seamlessly, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The quality of design is evident throughout, with carefully selected finishes and attention to detail that reflect the craftsmanship M/I Homes is known for. Key Features: Front-loading 2-car garage Covered patio Covered porch Bay window in owner's bedroom Sloped ceilings in the kitchen and family and dining rooms This home is situated in a welcoming community with convenient proximity to parks, offering residents easy access to outdoor recreation and green spaces. The surrounding area provides a pleasant setting that enhances the overall lifestyle this home delivers. Every detail of this new construction home has been designed with both function and style in mind, providing a space that is move-in ready and built to the standards you expect from a reputable builder like M/I Homes. MLS# 12948512

21. 2026-04-06
    listed $270,990 Active 929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (929 chars)

    UNDER CONSTRUCTION! READY IN JUNE! The Azalea plan is a modern 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 2-car garage home built by M/I Homes. The open floor plan connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly. The kitchen features sleek countertops, modern appliances, and ample cabinet space. This single-story home spans 1,491 sq. ft. and includes 3 bedrooms, an owner's bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, a luxurious walk-in shower, a dual sink vanity, and a soaking tub. Additionally, there are 2 more bedrooms that can be used for guests, children, or a home office, providing versatility to suit your needs. Outside is a covered patio in the backyard for those lovely, cool, peaceful mornings and evenings. The property is located in the tranquil neighborhood of Lone Star Landing, offering easy access to local amenities, schools, parks, and highways. Don't hesitate to get in touch with us to schedule a private showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,503/yr (+$292/mo · 301.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,283
• − Property taxes: −$1,163
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,383
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,052
• After-tax cash flow: $1,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $265,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $265,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $270,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-06 Listed $270,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,163 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.