12551 Hammill Path Dr Dr · Houston, TX 77066

$187,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2015 3,598 sqft lot $161/sqft · 11% below area Est $209k · 11% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0

Key facts

• 3,598 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2015

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure; Seller disclosure
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Hamill Crossing HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2015; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Gas cooling
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (1); Disposal

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-194 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenwood Forest El (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 672 students, 75% FRL); Wunderlich Int (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 1,316 students, 77% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 37% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,357 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,233
• List price: $187,000
• Delta: -10.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5527 Hamill Ranch Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-0%)	8mo	$200,000	$173	81
5050 Kleinway Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,192 (+3%)	14mo	$225,000	$189	60
13151 Gatton Park Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,199 (+3%)	15mo	$199,900	$167	58
5418 Forest Bridge Way	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,257 (+8%)	2mo	$215,000	$171	57
11411 Amber Valley Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+13%)	9mo	$230,000	$176	39
12506 Jacobs Trce	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,321 (+14%)	17mo	$213,000	$161	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-30,946
• Equity at exit: $44,949

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-44,527
• Equity at exit: $47,038

Cash invested: $52,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77066

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,504 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,880/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $152,722

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-141	+0% $-194	+5% $-247	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-313	-5% $-253	+0% $-194	+5% $-135	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-100	-0.5pp $-146	base $-194	+0.5pp $-242	+1.0pp $-292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,750
• Closing costs: $5,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12407 Hosanna Way Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1275	$2,200	$1.73	26d	1	0.16mi
4203 Stonehenge Trl Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,811	$1.21	14d	1	0.93mi
13949 Bammel North Houston Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$830	$0.92	9d	1	1.28mi
13949 Bammel North Houston Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$865	$0.96	6d	1	1.29mi
13949 Bammel North Houston Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	902	$855	$0.95	0d	1	1.29mi
13955 Bammel North Houston Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	914	$980	$1.07	13d	1	1.31mi
13955 Bammel North Houston Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	914	$980	$1.07	23d	1	1.31mi
12817 Greenwood Forest Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,020	$1.04	23d	1	1.38mi
12817 Greenwood Forest Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,020	$1.04	45d	1	1.38mi
12801 Champion Forest Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,477	$1.42	0d	15	1.40mi
12801 Champion Forest Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,478	$1.60	45d	28	1.40mi
12820 Greenwood Forest Dr Apt 420 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	979	$985	$1.01	17d	1	1.46mi
12820 Greenwood Forest Dr Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,884	$1.29	4d	1	1.46mi
12820 Greenwood Forest Dr Unit 525 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,844	$1.26	0d	1	1.46mi
12820 Greenwood Forest Dr Apt 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	979	$1,110	$1.13	9d	1	1.46mi
12820 Greenwood Forest Dr Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	979	$1,135	$1.16	0d	1	1.46mi
12820 Greenwood Forest Dr Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,895	$1.30	0d	1	1.46mi
12820 Greenwood Forest Dr Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	979	$1,094	$1.12	0d	1	1.46mi
5959 Farm to Market 1960 Rd W Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	880	$1,080	$1.23	12d	1	1.46mi
5959 Farm to Market 1960 Rd W Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	880	$1,056	$1.20	7d	1	1.46mi
5959 Farm to Market 1960 Rd W Unit 6016 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	880	$1,145	$1.30	14d	1	1.46mi
5959 Farm to Market 1960 Rd W Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	880	$1,040	$1.18	0d	1	1.46mi
5959 Farm to Market 1960 Rd W Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	880	$1,056	$1.20	9d	1	1.46mi
12811 Greenwood Forest Dr Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,095	$1.11	9d	1	1.48mi
12811 Greenwood Forest Dr Unit 12838 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,119	$1.14	12d	1	1.48mi
12811 Greenwood Forest Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	935	$1,307	$1.40	0d	25	1.48mi
12811 Greenwood Forest Dr Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,130	$1.15	12d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $187,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $187,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $187,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $187,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $187,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $187,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $187,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $187,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $187,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $187,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $187,000 Active
16. 2026-04-27
    historical
17. 2026-04-07
    price $199,500
18. 2026-03-06
    price $203,000
19. 2026-01-14
    listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,880 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,880 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,475
• − Property taxes: −$3,880
• − Insurance: −$935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$5,440
• Taxable loss: −$5,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,338
• After-tax cash flow: $-991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,311
• Household income: $87,138
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Black 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 15% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 36% Vietnamese 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 261.1086
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $187,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $203,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $210,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+27.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,880 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.