35123 Colony Hills Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33541

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1986 4,279 sqft lot Est $117k · 20% over $60/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Colony Hills 55+ Community! IMMACULATE Manufacture Home for Sale. 2 Beds, 2 Baths. This is the perfect place to retire or to escape the cold winters. Property is fully furnished and equipped with all you need to start enjoying your new FL Home. This property features a recently tiled enclosed porch, a spacious living room, kitchen has everything you need from appliances to cookware, dishes and utensils, there is a breakfast bar/pass-through from the kitchen to the dining room. Large Florida/Family room under air and heat, bathrooms' cabinets have been upgraded, separate laundry room, and storage. Roof 2011, AC 2016. This beautiful community offers many amenities to keep the fun going, the recreation building offers craft room, library, live concerts, swimming pool. Priced to sell.

Key facts

• Built-in cabinetry
• Ample cabinetry
• Covered carport

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• COVERED OPEN PORCH
• BONUS ROOM
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• AMPLE CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.1 acre)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Colony Hills HOA with required approval; Monthly HOA $60 (annual $720); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, tennis courts, community mailbox; Pets allowed (max ~20 lbs); Buyer approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide; Single-story; Faces south; Senior community
• Construction: Shingle roof; Other construction materials; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Awning(s); Rain gutters; Storage shed(s); Paved asphalt road; Public maintained road; In county

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Wood; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Outside laundry area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $140k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.37%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35131 Mcculloughs Leap	0.04mi	2/2.0	960 (+3%)	2mo	$120,000	$125	92
35051 Colony Hills Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	960 (+3%)	11mo	$120,000	$125	84
4101 Joyful Ln	0.26mi	2/2.0	924 (-1%)	8mo	$155,000	$168	79
4006 William Hume Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	888 (-5%)	14mo	$140,000	$158	75
35014 Carl Ave	0.49mi	2/1.0	924 (-1%)	8mo	$78,000	$84	64
35051 Dale Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0	960 (+3%)	6mo	$125,000	$130	61
34915 Adam Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+8%)	1mo	$123,000	$122	58
4655 Madison Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	984 (+5%)	4mo	$135,000	$137	54
35209 Ada Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0	900 (-4%)	10mo	$73,000	$81	52
35128 Dale Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0	852 (-9%)	8mo	$84,900	$100	48
34834 Carl Ave	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+13%)	7mo	$100,000	$95	47
34925 Carl Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+13%)	13mo	$120,000	$114	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-15,563
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-14,853
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $755/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$60
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,158

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $215	+0% $175	+5% $136	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $66	-5% $121	+0% $175	+5% $230	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $246	-0.5pp $211	base $175	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	1d	70	1.28mi
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	17d	1	1.29mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$1,956	$1.85	2d	13	1.32mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	27d	1	1.32mi
35940 Inspiration Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,788	$1.73	2d	22	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $139,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $158,000 Active
17. 2023-01-24
    status Pending
18. 2023-01-24
    historical
19. 2023-01-20
    price $175,000
20. 2023-01-06
    price $179,900
21. 2022-12-23
    listed $189,900 Active
22. 2019-05-14
    soldstatus $82,500 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Colony Hills 55+ Community! IMMACULATE Manufacture Home for Sale. 2 Beds, 2 Baths. This is the perfect place to retire or to escape the cold winters. Property is fully furnished and equipped with all you need to start enjoying your new FL Home. This property features a recently tiled enclosed porch, a spacious living room, kitchen has everything you need from appliances to cookware, dishes and utensils, there is a breakfast bar/pass-through from the kitchen to the dining room. Large Florida/Family room under air and heat, bathrooms' cabinets have been upgraded, separate laundry room, and storage. Roof 2011, AC 2016. This beautiful community offers many amenities to keep the fun going, the recreation building offers craft room, library, live concerts, swimming pool. Priced to sell.

23. 2019-05-14
    soldstatus $82,500

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Colony Hills 55+ Community! IMMACULATE Manufacture Home for Sale. 2 Beds, 2 Baths. This is the perfect place to retire or to escape the cold winters. Property is fully furnished and equipped with all you need to start enjoying your new FL Home. This property features a recently tiled enclosed porch, a spacious living room, kitchen has everything you need from appliances to cookware, dishes and utensils, there is a breakfast bar/pass-through from the kitchen to the dining room. Large Florida/Family room under air and heat, bathrooms' cabinets have been upgraded, separate laundry room, and storage. Roof 2011, AC 2016. This beautiful community offers many amenities to keep the fun going, the recreation building offers craft room, library, live concerts, swimming pool. Priced to sell.

24. 2019-05-06
    soldstatus $87,500
25. 2019-05-03
    soldstatus $87,500 Sold
26. 2019-03-26
    status Pending
27. 2019-03-21
    listed $82,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Colony Hills 55+ Community! IMMACULATE Manufacture Home for Sale. 2 Beds, 2 Baths. This is the perfect place to retire or to escape the cold winters. Property is fully furnished and equipped with all you need to start enjoying your new FL Home. This property features a recently tiled enclosed porch, a spacious living room, kitchen has everything you need from appliances to cookware, dishes and utensils, there is a breakfast bar/pass-through from the kitchen to the dining room. Large Florida/Family room under air and heat, bathrooms' cabinets have been upgraded, separate laundry room, and storage. Roof 2011, AC 2016. This beautiful community offers many amenities to keep the fun going, the recreation building offers craft room, library, live concerts, swimming pool. Priced to sell.

28. 2019-03-21
    listed $82,500 791-char remark

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Colony Hills 55+ Community! IMMACULATE Manufacture Home for Sale. 2 Beds, 2 Baths. This is the perfect place to retire or to escape the cold winters. Property is fully furnished and equipped with all you need to start enjoying your new FL Home. This property features a recently tiled enclosed porch, a spacious living room, kitchen has everything you need from appliances to cookware, dishes and utensils, there is a breakfast bar/pass-through from the kitchen to the dining room. Large Florida/Family room under air and heat, bathrooms' cabinets have been upgraded, separate laundry room, and storage. Roof 2011, AC 2016. This beautiful community offers many amenities to keep the fun going, the recreation building offers craft room, library, live concerts, swimming pool. Priced to sell.

29. 2019-03-21
    listed $82,500

    Show marketing remark (791 chars)

    Colony Hills 55+ Community! IMMACULATE Manufacture Home for Sale. 2 Beds, 2 Baths. This is the perfect place to retire or to escape the cold winters. Property is fully furnished and equipped with all you need to start enjoying your new FL Home. This property features a recently tiled enclosed porch, a spacious living room, kitchen has everything you need from appliances to cookware, dishes and utensils, there is a breakfast bar/pass-through from the kitchen to the dining room. Large Florida/Family room under air and heat, bathrooms' cabinets have been upgraded, separate laundry room, and storage. Roof 2011, AC 2016. This beautiful community offers many amenities to keep the fun going, the recreation building offers craft room, library, live concerts, swimming pool. Priced to sell.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$406/yr (+$34/mo · 53.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$755
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$41
• After-tax cash flow: $2,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+91.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $158,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-20 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-06 Price Changed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-23 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-14 Sold (MLS) $82,500 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2019-05-14 Sold (MLS) $82,500 HCAR
• 2019-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $87,500 Public Records
• 2019-05-03 Sold (MLS) $87,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-21 Listed $82,500 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2019-03-21 Listed $82,500 HCAR
• 2019-03-21 Listed $82,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $755 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.