221 County Road 911 Rd · Orrville, AL 36767

$59,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1973 0.30 ac lot $58/sqft · 15% below area Est $70k · 15% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath home located in the county side of Orrville Al. This home has central heating and fenced back yard

Key facts

• Central heating
• Fenced back yard
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• CENTRAL HEATING
• FENCED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($945 rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#542 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Dallas County (rural): math 2% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #115 of 129 in AL (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.36%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,653
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -15.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
323 County Road 911 Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,025 (0%)	14mo	$70,000	$68	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $28,747
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $71,642
• Equity at exit: $33,158

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36767

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $945 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $264/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $451

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $59,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,500 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,500 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,500 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $67,500 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,500 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,500 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,500 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,500 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-05-02
    price $67,500 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Great home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath home located in the county side of Orrville Al. This home has central heating and fenced back yard

18. 2026-03-20
    price $72,500 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Great home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath home located in the county side of Orrville Al. This home has central heating and fenced back yard

19. 2026-02-11
    listed $74,900 Active 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Great home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath home located in the county side of Orrville Al. This home has central heating and fenced back yard

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $264 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $264 · $22/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$264
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$907
• − Management: −$907
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $3,944
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$947
• After-tax cash flow: $3,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas County
• NCES district ID: 0101110
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $32,660
• Composite: 9.54/100
• National rank: #9847
• State rank: #115 of 129 in AL

Livability — Orrville

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #542
• US rank: #26262

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,474

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,464 people
• By 2030: 32,631 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 27,246 · -23.2%
• By 2050: 22,691 · -36.0%
• By 2075: 14,867 · -58.1%
• By 2100: 10,285 · -71.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 87% White 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.5) · D 65.9% · R 33.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 34.5pp · 2024: 32.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.5 2020: D+37.5 2016: D+37.6 2012: D+39.7 2008: D+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• Current HPI: 91.7103
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $67,500 MAAR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $72,500 MAAR
• 2026-02-11 Listed $74,900 MAAR