1749 Broken Bow Trl · Bradfordville, FL 32312

$319,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,403 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1991 8,276 sqft lot Est $307k · at est. $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home located in the highly sought-after Killearn Lakes community, one of North Tallahassee’s most established and desirable neighborhoods. Known for its peaceful setting, top-rated schools, and convenient access to shopping, dining, parks, and everyday essentials, Killearn Lakes also offers an ideal location just thirteen miles from the Florida/Georgia line. This charming one-story home features a spacious open floor plan with laminate wood flooring throughout. The oversized great room includes soaring ceilings and centers around a cozy wood-burning fireplace. The open kitchen is complete with granite countertops, tile backsplash, and great functi

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Oversized great room
• Granite countertops

Tags

• KILLEARN LAKES COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• OVERSIZED GREAT ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee: $120 (includes common areas)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (detached status not specified)
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Slab foundation
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Covered patio; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (10x10); Bedroom 3 (9x10)
• Flooring: Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Wood heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Entrance foyer; Split-bedroom floorplan; Sunroom; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($81/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.0% in Bradfordville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $194k; list at $320k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,244 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,257
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1764 Broken Bow Trl	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,459 (+4%)	2mo	$300,000	$206	88
1704 Greenridge Trl	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,500 (+7%)	1mo	$330,000	$220	76
8432 Ivy Brook Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	5mo	$332,000	$225	70
1853 Bridgemont Trl	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-9%)	5mo	$278,000	$219	68
9124 Hickory Nut Hl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,313 (-6%)	6mo	$191,000	$145	67
2245 Tuscavilla Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-2%)	3mo	$285,000	$208	60
8204 Chickasaw Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+2%)	2mo	$288,000	$201	60
1783 Folkstone Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,227 (-12%)	5mo	$309,960	$253	58
1451 Landon Hills Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,280 (-9%)	3mo	$243,288	$190	56
2253 Tuscavilla	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,466 (+4%)	3mo	$280,000	$191	56
1351 Landon Hills Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,280 (-9%)	4mo	$350,000	$273	56
1813 Newman Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,214 (-14%)	4mo	$285,000	$235	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-54,460
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-59,104
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32312

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,622 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,930/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,614

Max offer price $319,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8311 Hunters Ridge Trl Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,399	$1.71	14d	1	0.17mi
9306 Tuscany Dr Unit NA Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,700	$1.83	21d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $319,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $319,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,930 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,930 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$2,930
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,518
• − Management: −$2,518
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$5,440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,306
• After-tax cash flow: $1,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradfordville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bradfordville, FL
• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 31,966
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,216
• Household income: $123,032
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 630.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.79%
• Current HPI: 240.8961
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.85%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+188.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $319,900 CATRS
• 2006-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $194,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,930 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.