200 E 1st Ave · Ajo, AZ 85321

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1951 6,653 sqft lot $131/sqft · at area comps Est $124k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks in East Ajo, within walking distance to the downtown plaza, Ajo schools, and the pickleball courts. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features a partially updated interior with laminate flooring in the main living areas and vinyl in the bedrooms and kitchen. The bathroom has been refreshed with a new vanity, walk-in shower, and tiled walls, while the kitchen offers updated cabinetry and butcher block countertops. Much of the interior has been freshly painted. Outside, enjoy a freshly painted stucco exterior, covered back patio, and a spacious backyard with a metal storage shed. The property also features an RV gate and additional parking, making it a great option for snowbirds or those traveling with an RV. A few finishing touches remain, offering a great opportunity

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• New vanity
• Refreshed bathroom

Tags

• PARTIALLY UPDATED INTERIOR
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• VINYL IN BEDROOMS
• REFRESHED BATHROOM
• NEW VANITY
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.9% in Ajo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute D-.
• Ajo Unified District (4409) (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #343 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $120k implies a 519% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.35%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,403
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -3.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 E 2nd Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0	950 (+4%)	7mo	$115,000	$121	84
121 E 2nd Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	926 (+1%)	14mo	$159,800	$173	77
300 W 2nd St	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	900 (-2%)	2mo	$147,500	$164	74
311 W Solana Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (+4%)	2mo	$190,000	$200	71
420 W Arroyo Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	793 (-14%)	4mo	$139,000	$175	54
330 W Ocotillo Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,030 (+12%)	7mo	$130,000	$126	54
241 W 3rd Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	780 (-15%)	5mo	$150,000	$192	54
410 W LA Mina Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	991 (+8%)	2mo	$140,000	$141	52
461 W LA Mina Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	983 (+7%)	12mo	$144,900	$147	48
301 W Estrella Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	806 (-12%)	6mo	$175,000	$217	44
430 W Vananda Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	810 (-12%)	9mo	$120,000	$148	40
541 W Lomita Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	793 (-14%)	13mo	$155,000	$195	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-10,522
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,399
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85321

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $612/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,079

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-04-08
    price $119,900 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Opportunity knocks in East Ajo, within walking distance to the downtown plaza, Ajo schools, and the pickleball courts. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features a partially updated interior with laminate flooring in the main living areas and vinyl in the bedrooms and kitchen. The bathroom has been refreshed with a new vanity, walk-in shower, and tiled walls, while the kitchen offers updated cabinetry and butcher block countertops. Much of the interior has been freshly painted. Outside, enjoy a freshly painted stucco exterior, covered back patio, and a spacious backyard with a metal storage shed. The property also features an RV gate and additional parking, making it a great option for snowbirds or those traveling with an RV. A few finishing touches remain, offering a great opportunity

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $125,000 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Opportunity knocks in East Ajo, within walking distance to the downtown plaza, Ajo schools, and the pickleball courts. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features a partially updated interior with laminate flooring in the main living areas and vinyl in the bedrooms and kitchen. The bathroom has been refreshed with a new vanity, walk-in shower, and tiled walls, while the kitchen offers updated cabinetry and butcher block countertops. Much of the interior has been freshly painted. Outside, enjoy a freshly painted stucco exterior, covered back patio, and a spacious backyard with a metal storage shed. The property also features an RV gate and additional parking, making it a great option for snowbirds or those traveling with an RV. A few finishing touches remain, offering a great opportunity

19. 1992-09-22
    soldstatus $19,360

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$179/yr (+$15/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$612
• − Insurance: −$2,067
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$234
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$56
• After-tax cash flow: $1,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ajo Unified District (4409)
• NCES district ID: 0400520
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,237
• Composite: 23.59/100
• National rank: #13264
• State rank: #343 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Ajo

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ajo, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 4,313

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 19% Native American 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.38%
• Current HPI: 173.7704
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+519.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $119,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $125,000 ARMLS
• 1992-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $19,360 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $612 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.