Is Mustang Meadows 1754 Plan in Waller, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.9% cap rate and $-315/mo modeled cash flow at a $259,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Mustang Meadows 1754 Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,036/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 34.77

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +7.8/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Appreciation +2.9/10.0
Schools +2.8/10.0
1% rule +2.3/10.0
DSCR +1.8/10.0
Rent growth +1.6/5.0

$259,990

Mustang Meadows 1754 Plan · Waller, TX 77484

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,754 sqft · SingleFamily · 126 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

In Mustang Meadows, the ease of small-town living meets the convenience of having everything you need just minutes away. Surrounded by open space and rooted in a strong school district, the community offers a laid-back lifestyle while still placing you close to retail, dining, and plenty of outdoor adventure. With immediate access to Hwy 290, getting to work, meeting friends, or heading into Houston for the day is a breeze. It's a setting built for those who want room to relax without losing the convenience of being near it all.

Key facts

Open space
Close to dining
Close to retail

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (10.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (21.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $204k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.3% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1744 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 101d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,605 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.73% ✗
Cap rate: 4.94%
Cash-on-cash: -4.85%
DSCR: 0.78
GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $278,290
List price: $259,990
Delta: -6.58%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31122 Cass River Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,782 (+2%)	2mo	$263,990	$148	87
31010 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (+4%)	2mo	$283,800	$155	68
31018 Gayle Prairie Oak St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (+4%)	2mo	$229,990	$126	68
31106 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (+4%)	3mo	$282,540	$155	67
31115 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (+4%)	3mo	$287,290	$157	65
31026 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	2mo	$268,790	$175	59
31003 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	1mo	$274,540	$179	59
31015 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	2mo	$209,990	$137	58
31039 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	3mo	$270,290	$176	57
31030 Gayle Prairie Oaks St	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,912 (+9%)	2mo	$283,790	$148	56
31103 Gayle Prairie Oak St	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,912 (+9%)	1mo	$290,540	$152	55
31007 Gayle Prairie Oak St	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,912 (+9%)	2mo	$287,040	$150	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -27.9%
Equity multiple: 0.09×
Total profit: $-71,076
Equity at exit: $41,494

10-year hold

IRR: -43.0%
Equity multiple: -0.42×
Total profit: $-110,637
Equity at exit: $24,061

Cash invested: $77,921 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 40 active · 26 under contract
Months of supply: 7.1 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $264,490 ($158/sqft)
Median days on market: 126 d
This list price: 42% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

Home prices YoY: -1.0%
Rents YoY: -3.8%
Active inventory: 1744
Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,036 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,459
Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,174/yr
Insurance: −$116
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
Net cashflow: $-315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,434

Max offer price $232,749

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-219	+0% $-315	+5% $-411	+10% $-507
Rent	-10% $-476	-5% $-395	+0% $-315	+5% $-234	+10% $-154
Rate	-1.0pp $-175	-0.5pp $-244	base $-315	+0.5pp $-387	+1.0pp $-460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $69,572
Closing costs: $8,349
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31406 Gayle Prairie Oaks St Waller, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,300	$1.02	65d	1	0.56mi
31406 Gayle Prairie Oaks St Waller, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,200	$0.97	35d	1	0.56mi
17239 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2260	$1,995	$0.88	108d	1	0.92mi
17222 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	2178	$1,935	$0.89	100d	1	0.97mi
17119 King Eider Rd Waller, TX	4.0	2.5	1994	$1,900	$0.95	117d	1	1.00mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Address listed as Mustang Meadows 1754 Plan, Waller, TX 77484Status: ActiveInventory type: Plan
Financial info: List price $259,990

Exterior

Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
Home design: Single-family residence (plan name: Mustang Meadows 1754)
Exterior features: Living area of 1,754 (plan)

Interior

Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Interior features: New construction plan (Mustang Meadows 1754)

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $259,990 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $259,990 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $259,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $259,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $259,990 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $259,990 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $259,990 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $259,990 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $259,990 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $259,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $259,990 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $259,990 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $259,990 Active 108 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $259,990 Active 107 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $259,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $259,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $259,990 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $259,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $259,990 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $259,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $259,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $259,990 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $259,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $259,990 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $259,990 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $259,990 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $259,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $259,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $259,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $259,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $259,990 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $259,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $259,990 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $259,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $259,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $259,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $259,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $259,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $259,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $259,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $259,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $259,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $259,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $259,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $259,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $259,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $259,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $259,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $259,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $259,990 Active 62 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $24,433
− Mortgage interest: −$15,589
− Property taxes: −$4,174
− Insurance: −$1,391
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
− Management: −$1,955
− Depreciation: −$8,096
Taxable loss: −$8,727

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,094
After-tax cash flow: $-1,682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
Resale Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract more renters and reduce utility costs. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

Score: 61/100
State rank: #1003
US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 14,348
Household income: $81,250
Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
Current HPI: 397.85
Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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