7687 Francis Ln Unit 1-4 · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$1,000,000

28 bd · 16.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · MultiFamily · 723 Days on market

Built 1952 Good condition 6,098 sqft lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION. MOTIVATED SELLER HAS REDUCED THE PRICE AGAIN. Birch Bay living year round. Updated 4-plex located one block off Birch Bay Drive. Three 2 bedroom units and 1 one bedroom unit. All units were remodeled in 2021. Parking lot resurfaced in 2024. Laundry room on site equipped with stack washer/dryer. VA Loan 2.75% interest rate can be assumed by a non-veteran. Balance owing is $484,000. RESORT COMMERCIAL ZONING ALLOWS NO SET BACKS AND NO HEIGHT RESTRICTIONS. ADDITIONAL UNITS CAN BE ADDED WITH GREAT VIEW OF BIRCH BAY. PROPERTY WAS RECENTLY SURVEYED.

Key facts

• Laundry room on site
• Remodeled in 2021
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• REMODELED IN 2021
• PARKING LOT RESURFACED
• LAUNDRY ROOM ON SITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3×2bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $1.00M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-494/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $714k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $678k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $678k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,784/mo this rent would consume 94% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 454% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $107k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $100k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$172k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 723 days — a 12% lower offer ($880k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $678,400 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 723 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.65%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $419,697
• Equity at exit: $900,879

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $1,337,123
• Equity at exit: $1,942,780

Cash invested: $280,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 47.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,784 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,244
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,250 /mo · $15,000/yr
• Insurance: −$417
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,425
• Net cashflow: $-1,978

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,288

Max offer price $713,787

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,287	-5% $-1,632	+0% $-1,978	+5% $-2,323	+10% $-2,669
Rent	-10% $-2,514	-5% $-2,246	+0% $-1,978	+5% $-1,710	+10% $-1,442
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,474	-0.5pp $-1,724	base $-1,978	+0.5pp $-2,237	+1.0pp $-2,501

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$5,265
1× unit	1	1	$1,520
Total (4 units)			$6,784

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $250,000
• Closing costs: $30,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 723 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 722 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 721 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 720 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 718 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 717 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 715 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 714 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,000,000 Active 713 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,000,000 Active 712 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,000,000 Active 709 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,000,000 Active 707 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,000,000 Active 706 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,000,000 Active 705 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,000,000 Active 704 DOM
16. 2025-08-05
    price $1,000,000
17. 2025-04-05
    price $1,100,000
18. 2025-01-30
    price $1,150,000
19. 2024-06-24
    listed $1,250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $81,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$56,016
• − Property taxes: −$15,000
• − Insurance: −$10,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,513
• − Management: −$6,513
• − Depreciation: −$29,091
• Taxable loss: −$41,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 4-unit property is in good condition with recent updates, offering a good investment opportunity with potential for further value enhancement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Updating countertops and backsplash in kitchen — Improves kitchen functionality and appearance.
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Enhances interior ambiance and safety.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Updating countertops and backsplash in kitchen — Improves kitchen functionality and appearance. ↑
• Both Upgrading lighting fixtures — Enhances interior ambiance and safety. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $1,000,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-05 Price Changed $1,100,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $1,150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-24 Listed $1,250,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid